Sunday, August 22, 2010

91B has come and gone !
Remnants of an erstwhile low, presently at 1004 mb in the southern Bay, hangs around, embedded in an off shore trough line along the Eastern coast south of A.P. With clouding along the trough, we have seen rains in T.N. in the last couple of days.In fact very good rains all over the state have raised hopes , after a weak SWM. Almost reminding the state of the NEM.
Bangalore was drenched with good rains from Thursday/Friday. After rains on Sunday evening, the rains may decrease in the city.
I would expect this low, to deepen and sort of re-form in the same region by 22nd/23rd. But would not expect very heavy rains at this stage.

Now, almost all models indicate the low to linger in the same region, in the sea, till 26th. Around that date, it may enter inland, as a 1000 mb low.
Where ? Normally I would say the A.P.coast. But, as a W.D. (I name it 25W), is crossing the northern region, we could expect the low to be pulled away from the east coast, and move Northerly, and then maybe cross near the Orissa/Bengal coast.
T.N. rains wll decrease , and the persisting low, will result in cloudy weather, but lesser rains in the interiors of the states of T.N. and Karnataka, next 3 days. Thence, all depends on the course of the low.But, I would expect precipitation in pockets to continue in the southern peninsula throughout next week.
See a small vortex, inland forming north of Bangalore on Monday/Tuesday. Maybe some rain in Bangalore on Monday night/early Tuesday.

The same 25W is sure to inter act with the axis, by then in a firm position along the Himalayan foothills, and produce heavy rains from H.P.thru Utteranchal and west U.P. and Nepal. We can expect very heavy downpours along the hills as the axix itself is also at a pressure of 1000 mb.The western end of the axis is saddled in Balochistan, at 998 mb.and will remain firm till the TD off the Vietnam coast survives. Indicating no signs of the monsoon withdrawal from there as yet.
This coming week, more rains for Delhi area after the 25th.

The western coast off shore trough remains weak next week. Normal rains of upto 10/15 mms per day could be expected.

Mumbai: Another few days of less rain.
Monday: Partly cloudy, with sunny intervals. A couple of brief heavy showers.
Tuesday:Partly cloudy, with sunny intervals. A couple of brief heavy showers, especially in the night.
Wednesday: Cloudy with some showers. Stuffy at night.
All days rains will measure upto 10/12 mms per day.

No comments:

Post a Comment