West Rajasthan still on the look-out for rains

An upper air cyclonic circulation over west Madhya Pradesh and adjoining east Rajasthan has clambered up to north Rajasthan on Sunday, but has not brought major gains for west Rajasthan yet.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said in an update on the same day that a western disturbance may drift into the region and affect the local weather from Tuesday onwards.

System interaction
Interaction of the two systems could be the closest that the western parts of the desert might actually get to receiving rains during this week.
If the outlook of the International Research Institute (IRI) at Columbia University is any indication, west Rajasthan might just manage to make it.
IRI forecasts based on Saturday (July 17) and valid until Thursday (July 22), said that west Rajasthan too may benefit from a wave of heavy to extremely heavy rains looking westward from the foothills of the Himalayas and adjoining Uttar Pradesh during the period under reference.
This is in consonance with the forecast by the IMD that the rain-driving monsoon trough would start moving north towards the foothills, weakening the rainfall over the plains at large.

Flood alert
The IRI has issued an ‘extreme heavy rainfall alert' for Nepal, Himalayan foothills and adjoining east Uttar Pradesh, for the early part of the week.
A flood alert is in place for large parts of northwest India, the entire western half of peninsular India and parts of southeast peninsula.
Areas that come under the footprint of the flood alert (on the basis if cumulative rainfall forecast for the period) are: Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, north Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh and adjoining east Rajasthan, Gujarat, western half of Maharashtra, Karnataka, entire Tamil Nadu and Kerala except the extreme south and southeast.
Extremely heavy rain alerts are valid for coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Rayalaseema, apart from parts of interior Tamil Nadu.
On its part, the IMD has issued a warning of isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall for Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, east Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala during the next two days.

Convective clouds
An IMD update for the 24 hours ending Sunday morning said that widespread rainfall has been reported from over the west coast, madhya Maharashtra, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States.
It was isolated to scattered over the remaining parts of the country except west Rajasthan, the IMD said.
Satellite pictures on Sunday revealed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, the Northeastern States, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, East Arabian Sea, South and East-central Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea.
Forecast until Wednesday spoke about the possibility of widespread rainfall over Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and the Northeastern States.

Fairly widespread
Fairly widespread rainfall would occur over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, East Rajasthan, Gangetic West Bengal, Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
It would be scattered over madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, interior Karnataka, north Andhra Pradesh and Orissa during the next two days before growing in intensity subsequently.
Extended forecasts until Friday said that widespread rainfall would continue to occur over the west coast and the Northeastern States and along the foothills of the Himalayas.
Fairly widespread rainfall could be expected over central and east India during this period, the IMD said.