Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Rains seen returning to north-west this week

Parts of north-west as well as east India are likely to receive heavy to very heavy rains over the next few days, according to various forecast models.
While west coast may see varying episodes of rainfall, interior peninsula is likely to dry up gradually during this period.

Strong winds
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update on Sunday that strong south westerly winds prevailed over Gujarat and Rajasthan in the lower levels of the atmosphere. They originate from the North Arabian Sea and are expected to carry enough moisture as they blow inland.
A prevailing western disturbance and the presence of the monsoon trough nestling in the foothills of the Himalayas would help engender conditions favourable for wet weather in the region.
The IMD has said that the western disturbance would affect the western Himalayan region during the next three to four days.

West to east
According to the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University, the five-day-period up to July 15 would see wet sessions of varying intensity over the region. The IRI has indicated a south-west to north-east to south-southeast swathe originating from Gujarat crossing Rajasthan (save extreme west border), Haryana, Delhi, entire Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, parts of Jharkhand, east Madhya Pradesh and Gangetic West Bengal may benefit from the rains.
The IRI has also warned of extremely heavy rainfall in parts of Uttar Pradesh during this period, and has raised flood alert in the region.

Convective clouds
Satellite cloud imagery on Sunday revealed the presence of convective (rain-producing) clouds over parts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, east Madhya Pradesh, and Vidarbha.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) too has given out broadly similar forecast of rains for east India, but hinted they might take more time to unravel over the north-west.
According to the IMD, the previous day's upper air cyclonic circulation over east Uttar Pradesh has on Sunday taken the shape of a trough extending into North Bay of Bengal across Bihar and Gangetic west Bengal and, hence, the clouding in those parts. A heavy rainfall warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Konkan, Goa and Uttar Pradesh.

Heavy rain alert
Heavy to very heavy rainfall has also been forecast at a few places over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, West Bengal, Sikkim and Bihar during this period.
In its detailed forecast valid until Wednesday, the IMD saw the possibility of widespread rain or thundershowers over the north eastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers has been forecast over Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, West Bengal, Sikkim, west Uttar Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi.
Only scattered rain or thundershowers is forecast for interior Maharashtra, east Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, interior Karnataka, Orissa, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir.
In its outlook until Friday, the IMD saw a decrease in rainfall activity over parts of Gujarat, north-west, central and interior peninsular India.

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