Friday, July 02, 2010

Monsoon is 17 days behind schedule

As on date (July 1), the South-West monsoon is nearly 17 days behind schedule over the Gangetic plains of North India.
The normal date on which it enters Uttar Pradesh is June 14. It has advanced only up to the western parts of Bihar.
Outlook based on various international and Indian weather prediction models available suggests that monsoon rainfall activity over entire peninsular India, especially the west coast, is likely to be good for next week because of strong monsoonal flow over Arabian Sea.

Westerly flows
But elsewhere, the wind flow over North-west India (including Delhi) is predominantly westerly in the lower levels.
The region is under the influence of a prevailing western disturbance which may continue to stay for two more days, according to a group of meteorological experts.
Under its influence, there would be partly cloudy sky and isolated thunderstorm/light rainfall activity over the region.
Since winds over the region are also coming from Arabian Sea, the humidity level is expected to be high.
Under these situations, the region may not witness severe heat wave conditions but the day temperatures may remain slightly above normal.
The group maintained the view that there is little probability of formation of a low pressure area over the head Bay of Bengal during next seven days.
The ‘low' is necessary for revival and advancement of monsoon over the Gangetic plain.

Cyclonic circulation
Nevertheless, there are a few models which suggest formation of a cyclonic circulation over North Bay of Bengal and adjoining Orissa during the next two days.
This may move westwards across Central India and cause good rainfall activity for three days from Friday over areas of north peninsula and central India.
This might also cause scattered rainfall activity over parts of Bihar, Jharkhand and East Uttar Pradesh during this period.
Whether this spell of rain will be sufficient to advance monsoon over these areas will depend on the extent of coverage and sustenance of the activity.
Available predictions from a majority of the models do not, however, suggest advancement of monsoon beyond East Uttar Pradesh, even with the help of a predicted cyclonic circulation.

Uttar Pradesh

The status of sowing operations in the region is as follows:
As on June 30, nursery for paddy has been raised in 81 per cent of the area as against 89 per cent in 2009.
If monsoon arrives in Uttar Pradesh by the first week of July, there would be no adverse impact on yield.
If it fails to show up by this time, necessary measures would need to be implemented.
Normally, sowing of maize gets started from June 15 in the State. As on June 30, only 13 per cent area has been sown as against normal area of 80 per cent.
Delay in sowing may lead to a juvenile crop vulnerable to water logging during the time of high rainfall in July which may eventually reduce the overall yield.
The sugarcane crop is in good health despite dry conditions in June and is not suffering from major pest/diseases.
The delay in monsoon up to the first week of July may not adversely affect the crop. But delay beyond this may slow down the growth/elongation and eventually reduce the yield.
As for pigeon pea, the area sown is 17 per cent as against normal area of 80 per cent.
But the crop can be sown up to beginning of August. There would be no impact of late arrival of monsoon.
Monsoon has already advanced in most parts of Bihar and Jharkhand.

Bihar and Jharkhand
All the three zones of Bihar and most part of Jharkhand have received some rain in the 2 {+n} {+d} and 3 {+r} {+d} weeks of June which has helped recharging of soil moisture.
But one or two spells of heavy rainfall is required for full paddy transplanting work to start across these States.
Although area sown in paddy and other crops is less than the normal, delay up to 1 {+s} {+t} week of July may not impact them adversely. Any further delay may entail contingency measures.

Haryana and Punjab
These two States have quite similar agricultural operations. A majority of these operations are under assured irrigation.
The delay in monsoon may not impact much except that they would have to bear extra cost on irrigation.

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