The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has hinted the possibility of a low-pressure area spinning up over north-west Bay of Bengal by the weekend.
The location is very close to the ‘sweet spot,' Head Bay of Bengal – from where, during classical monsoon conditions, a ‘low' drives into the farming heartland of the country.
LIKELY LOCATION
But such a ‘low' has been conspicuously absent thus far during the season. The present one does not look like one such either, if forecast models are to be believed.
The US National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) begged to differ, predicting the location bang right over the Head Bay. But that is just about it.
Thanks to the presence of opposing westerlies, the system would be forced to potter around the coast, if not entirely track to the southwest, before it can penetrate the mainland, the NCEP said.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), too, seems to agree with the scenario, and sees the system meandering west into southern parts of Central India and North Maharashtra.
The deep westerly trough from the opposite side and associated westerlies and southwesterlies would not allow the system to move further, though the interaction of the flows is expected to cause rainfall over central India.
SECOND ‘LOW'?
In fact, the ECMWF sees another ‘low'/cyclonic circulation taking shape off the Andhra Pradesh coast early next week and triggering another wet session over that part of the peninsula.
The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services sees enhanced rainfall over many parts of India (except the northwest), the Bay of Bengal and South-East Asia during the week ending Monday.
The CPC expressed ‘high confidence' in this eventuality, which it attributed to an enhanced phase of a monsoon-friendly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave, developing La Nina conditions in the Equatorial East Pacific and above-normal sea surface temperatures (SST).
However, it also signalled the possibility of another tropical cyclone brewing in the North-west Pacific around the Philippine archipelago during the following week (July 27 to August 2), a potential distraction to monsoonal flows over India.
PRODUCTIVE SESSION
The Global Forecast System (GFS) model of the CPC has said in its outlook for July 27 to August 5 that most parts of India, except east peninsular India, would witness a mostly productive monsoon session.
This cause would be amply served by the enhanced wet phase of an MJO phase that is forecast by varying models to last until August 5 or even up to August 15 before fading out completely.
Meanwhile, the IMD said in its update on Thursday that widespread rainfall has been reported from the West Coast during the 24 hours ending in the same morning.
It was fairly widespread over west Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat region, Saurashtra, East Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab while being scattered over Telangana, the Northeastern States, Vidarbha, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Uttarakhand.
Satellite pictures revealed the presence of convective (Rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Bihar, Karnataka, Kerala, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, East Arabian Sea and Southwest and East-central Bay of Bengal.
The upper air cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan and adjoining northwest Rajasthan persisted. The offshore trough from south Gujarat coast to Karnataka coast, too, persisted.
A warning valid for the next 24 hours said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, West Uttar Pradesh, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Saurashtra and Coastal Karnataka.
An IMD outlook spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over the Western Himalayan region, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Interior Maharashtra, Interior Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh during the next 24 hours.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the West Coast, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the Northeastern States, Central and East India and Gujarat State.
Forecast until Tuesday (July 27) said that fairly widespread rainfall would occur over Central, East and Northeast India, the West Coast and along the foothills of the Himalayas.
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