Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Arabian Sea flows pick up as typhoon blows over

The west coast is expected to see a marked rise in intensity of rains as southwesterly flows have picked up over the Arabian Sea close on the heels of a Northwest Pacific typhoon having blown over.
International models indicate that the entire peninsula, including west interior Maharashtra, Karnataka, parts of Telangana and Rayalaseema may benefit from the wet session.

Water shortage
Speaking to Business Line, Mr N. B. Patil, Additional Chief Secretary, Maharashtra, said he was worried that the west interior parts of the State have had to mostly sit out even as a productive session sustained concurrently along the west coast.
Water levels in dams in the region had retreated to a level that is unsustainable for purposes of essential supplies.
But model predictions by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the International Research Centre (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University, the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services, and the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction indicated a favourable turn for the better for this region during the course of this week.
The US Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC) too has joined the outlook but indicated that, going forward, the west interior Maharashtra may not gain as much as its eastern counterpart in recorded rains during this period.

The CPC and the NCEP too tended to subscribe to this view, apparently due to the likelihood of a Bay of Bengal system crossing land but not quite making it into the interior.
In the final analysis, what seems to have deprived interior Maharashtra its due share of rain this time round has been the lack of a suitably endowed ‘low' in the Bay that would typically spin its way into the interior and synchronise itself with the off-shore trough lying along the west coast.
The IRI has said that based on initial conditions obtaining on Sunday (July 18), entire western Maharashtra, Karnataka, and northern parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu may witness very heavy rains (in cumulative recorded quantum) during the period ending Friday (July 23).
‘Very heavy' rains have also been forecast for Rajasthan (except southwest), Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during this period.
‘Heavy' rains are likely for Gujarat, west Madhya Pradesh and even parts of southwest Rajasthan while bouts of extremely heavy rains may unfold over North Madhya Pradesh, parts of Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka.
According to the ECMWF, the atmospheric features that could support its outlook for peninsular gains is a trough of low pressure over the Arabian Sea, which would later show up over the peninsula to be held into position by sea-based cyclonic circulations to either side.
Meanwhile, a warning from the IMD valid for the next two days said that heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Haryana (including Delhi and Chandigarh), East Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
Forecast until Thursday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers may unfold over the Northeastern States and sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the western Himalayan region and the Indo-Gangetic plains.
Widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the west coast while scattered rainfall activity would occur over Central and adjoining East India during the next two days before scaling up further.
Extended forecast until Saturday by the IMD said that fairly widespread rainfall would occur over Central and East India, the west coast, Himalayan foothills and the Northeastern States.
During the last 24 hours ending Monday morning, widespread rainfall has occurred over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the west coast, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands, while it was fairly widespread over Northeastern States and West Madhya Pradesh and scattered over madhya Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu.
Satellite pictures revealed the presence of convective (rain-bearing clouds) over parts of Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, East Arabian Sea, South Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea and the Comorin region.

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