Wednesday, June 09, 2010

Rains and Pleasant Weather in North

Rains and Pleasant Weather in North:
Since Phet crossed into Northwest India, widespread rainfall has been reported from many parts in the region, as the system had interacted with a prevailing western disturbance, and formed the mini W.D,
The ongoing rainfall due to this in the North/Northwest has pushed the heat further South and South-east to cover pockets of  Bihar,  Orissa, and Chhattisgarh.
Also, as anticipated, heavy unseasonal snow  in Lahaul-Spiti and widespread rain in middle and lower hill areas provided much-needed relief to people from sweltering heat and dry spell.
The twin valleys of Lahaul and Sipti recorded heaviest snow for June for the past several decades. Keylong, the district headquarters, had received 10 inches of snowfall by the evening and it was still continuing. The Kunzum Pass and Kibber and other higher areas received even more.

The core pressure of the Monsoon seasonal low over the Rajasthan/Sindh region has suddenly gone up to 1002 mb, against a normal required at this time of 994 mb.Temperatures were well below normal since the last 2 days.(IMD Maps).
The Monsoon had not advanced beyond the Northern limit aligned Southwest to Northeast along Karwar, Bangalore, Cuddapah, Bapatla, Agartala, Dhubri and Gangtok which has been held on since on Monday.
Heat is again required to create the steep gradiant to pull up the Monsoon.

Heat Wave Forecast: 
I do not rule out the possibility of an extreme heat wave over Gujarat, Rajasthan, Vidharbh, and delhi/Haryana regions from Friday thru Sunday (11th/12th/13th). The regions in Gujarat and Rajasthan will have to gear up to face temperatures upto 46/47c, with an exceptional 48c in some pockets of Rajasthan.

Forecast for Monsoon Progress:
The Bay  has spun up a cyclonic circulation on Tuesday, which forecast to intensified as a “low”on Wednesday.This would track west and cross close to the Chennai coast.
The system would continue to track to the west and re-emerge into the Arabian Sea, near Goa by Monday, 14th. June. On entering the Arabian Sea, it seems it could get embedded in a offshore trough along the west coast. This could would help intensify the system, maybe into a depression, or a deep depression, and push it northward along the coast, according to international model outlook.
According to the ECMWF, the intensified system would be pulled up towards Mumbai-south Gujarat around June 15.
Most models forecast the system  would track India's west coast and head towards the Mumbai-Gujarat coast.

What is apparently becoming a certain possibility is for heavy rains over the Konkan/Mumbai/Gujarat region from June 15.
After the system enters into the Arabian Sea arena, say by Sunday,the Northward progress towards Mumbai would be watched carefully.The Monsoon arrival over Mumbai could be around Sunday/Monday.

Mumbai Forecast: Cloudy and passing showers, with the same hit and miss showers continuing in parts of the city till Saturday.
Sunday/Monday will be overcast and more rainy, with rains measuring upto 20 mms/day.
Monday night and Tuesday will get very heavy rains, upto 150-200mms, with gusty winds. Typical monsoonish flooding weather on Tuesday,15th.


  1. Typical Mumbai weather. In a day on an average rains 200mm-500mm and in an extreme case 1000mm.
    Myself native of Mumbai/Navi Mumbai since last 30years. Beauty of nature, hills - Bombay - Pune road, roaring waterfalls, dense canaopy of trees is amazing. In fact Mumbai is all set for this monsoon by planting crores of saplings.

  2. yes.The heavy showers can start from Monday evening, if the formation of low is as per schedule. Tuesday could be very heavy.
    Me following and studying Mumbai weather for 35 years now.

  3. Great weather sir! Entire Mumbai will take precautions by your forcast. I miss Mumbai, last 2 years in Bangalore - here never seen any monsoon. Rains for 5minutes -10minutes (just 10-20 mm) and people say what a heavy rain. In fact in Bangalore for such a small amount of rain already bad roads break, houses collapse. Very poor Bangalore infrastructure. Here no attempt is made to improve greenary - no tree plantation.

    In fact I tell Bangalore BBMP,BDA to visti "New Bombay" / Lavasa to understand meaning of infrastructure.

  4. Anonymous11:38 AM

    Chennai is the greatest city!!!

  5. This is a scientific weather blog. We are not against any city. Intention was people should respect environment, as weather in a way is related to environment (Trees).

  6. Anonymous12:09 PM it!!!