Monday, June 14, 2010

Pulse from the bay "low"

The pulse from the bay "low" has fulfilled its duty!The predicted upper air cyclonic circulation is in the forming stage off the west coast today (IMD Map). The Maharashtra coast has been spotted with heavy rains since Sunday night 

(IMD rain Map), and Mumbai getting a drenching on Monday morning with a heavy thunderstorm.Vengurla got 190mms,Goa 65mms and Ratnagiri 46mms. 

During this week the system could start attracting the flows towards itself and cover the entire west coast. 
FNMOC forecast shows a swath of rains along the Konkan-Mumbai-Gujarat coast from Tuesday, this week.The system, with the off shore trough, will be raining down over the western coastal areas over the rest of the week.

On the contrary, the eastern coast, comprising Tamil Nadu, A.P, and Orissa, will be much drier with scanty rains during the week in discussion. I see the "low" fizzling out "on-the-spot" near the T.N.coast itself by Monday itself. But the region North of Orissa coast would continue to get heavy rains.

After Wednesday 16th,, some model forecasts show the Northern most point on the west coast( read Gujarat), upto Mumbai, getting drier comparitivly, to some extent. But, the precipitation outlook from NCEP and FNMOC suggest  the west coast as a whole would receive fiarly good amounts of rainfall during the week ending June 20.
Resultantly, we should see the entire peninsula and the southern parts Gujarat and M.P. covered by the monsoon during this period.

Mumbai Colaba had recieved 30mms of rain upto 08.30 hrs on Monday. As per my forecast put up yesterday (13th.), the city should see an increase in rain from evening onwards,peaking tomorrow.
From Friday 18th, Mumbai may see the rainfall intensity diminishing, maybe to around 15-20mms /day.

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