An itinerant western disturbance with associated dry north-westerlies was seen interfering with the progress of the monsoon along the west coast on Thursday.
Rain over sea
Satellite imagery showed the presence of convective (rain-producing) clouds out into east-central and adjoining west-central Arabian Sea, south-east and east-central Bay of Bengal and south Andaman Sea.
This indicated the fact that the ongoing heavy rainfall was concentrated away from the Mumbai coast and out into the sea.
This was because the north-westerly flows did not allow monsoon westerly-to-south-westerly flows to prevail north of the coastal Karnataka-Konkan coast.
But they managed to carry themselves into further inland along this latitude and into western Maharashtra and cause varying amounts of rain.
A warning valid for the next two days and issued by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka.
According to the IMD, the western disturbance would be active for another day.
Next wave
International models suggested that it may be a while before typical monsoon rains returned to the Konkan-Mumbai coast.
Global Forecasting System (GFS) model employed by an Australian forecasting agency suggested that rains may return briefly on Saturday but rain out sooner than later.
The next wave of rains is predicted to time with the initiation of substantive monsoon pulse from June 22-23 as flows revive along the west coast.
The international Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University has maintained an outlook for varying amounts of rains over the coastal Karnataka-Mumbai coast for six days ending June 21.
‘Twin engines'
The US Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services also tended to agree with this outlook suggesting possible monsoon revival.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) continued to indicate that this would roll out the ‘twin-engine' scenario from June 25 onwards.
ECMWF said two likely low's on either side of the peninsula may link themselves together over the peninsula and drive the monsoon afresh into central and east India.
On Thursday, the Bay of Bengal arm of monsoon pushed further inland into east India covering east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Orissa, the IMD said.
In this manner, the northern limit of monsoon passed from west through Rajkot, Ahmedabad, Indore, Seoni, Pendra, Jharsuguda, Burdwan and Malda to Gangtok.
Conditions are favourable for further its advance into remaining parts of Orissa, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Sikkim and parts of Jharkhand and Bihar during the next three days.
An upper air cyclonic circulation has taken a vantage point over east Bihar and neighbourhood to oversee the proceedings.
An IMD outlook until Sunday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Gujarat Region, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim and the North-eastern States.
Scattered rain or thundershowers may occur over Saurashtra, Madhya Pradesh, interior Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Vidarbha.
A prevailing western disturbance would bring scattered rain or thundershowers over Jammu and Kashmir during the next 24 hours but would decrease thereafter.
Forecast until Tuesday said that fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely to occur along west coast and over the North-eastern States.
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