Thursday, June 10, 2010

Monsoon may peak next week

The South-West monsoon may ratchet up to peak strength next week with “twin engines” firing away at vanguard points in the seas across the peninsula.
The prognosis has lead to one model, the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to suggest that seasonal rains could even manage to cover the entire country just ahead of the June 30 time line.


This is saying much, according to experts, given that the system had stalled for a week in the onset phase with Super Cyclone Phet upending the rhythm.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees monsoon winds roaring across the farming heartland powered by the ‘twin engines' on either side of the peninsula.
By mentioning twin engines, the reference is to concurrent ‘low'/depression spearheading rains respectively from the Gujarat coast and the head Bay of Bengal.
The latter is considered the monsoon ‘sweet spot' for low's ensuring orderly march of the rains to northwest India across the Gangetic plains.


This would provide for the most ideal setting, not seen for a long time now, showing monsoon in full flow across the landmass.
According to the NCEP, the west coast would be active during the current week ending June 16. Crucially enough, the Bay of Bengal is forecast to continue to be active in the following week ending June 25, helping bring rains into northwest India.
North-West India has already had its fair share of heavy to very heavy but non-seasonal rains from surplus moisture fanned in by erstwhile tropical cyclone ‘Phet.'
India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday said that the rains had caused temperatures to plunge by a massive 19 deg Celsius in the region due to overcast skies and rains.


On the flip side, though, this would briefly unsettle the ‘heat low' sitting in the region with a major say on pulling in the monsoon winds.
‘Top heat,' in this manner, has now shifted to central and east India.
But an IMD outlook for the next two days said that maximum temperature would start rising by 6 to 8 deg Celsius over parts of northwest India.
On Wednesday, the previous day's upper air cyclonic circulation descended to the lower levels and set up a ‘low' over west-central Bay.
Global Forecasting System (GFS) model outputs by the NCEP continued to suggest that the system may track west across the peninsula and emerge into the Arabian Sea.
The IMD saw intensification of monsoon flow over Arabian Sea, south peninsular India and Bay of Bengal during the next four days.
NCEP outlooks suggested that the system in the Arabian Sea may track north and take the monsoon with it into Mumbai-south Gujarat around June 15.
But it showed the system parked away from the Gujarat coast that day up to which forecasts were available on Wednesday.
The ECMWF in its short-to-medium forecast said that the system would wash ashore along the Gujarat coast and oversee the progress of rains in tandem with a ‘low' shaping up concurrently over the head Bay.
The IMD has warned of isolated heavy rainfall over the Northeastern States, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next two days.
Forecasts until Saturday said that fairly widespread rain/thundershowers would occur over Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal and south interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Konkan, Goa, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States.
Scattered rain or thundershowers are likely over Rayalaseema and Telangana during the next 24 hours and increase thereafter.
Forecasts until Monday suggested that fairly widespread rainfall activity would occur over Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep, the Northeastern States and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

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