Monday, June 14, 2010

Monsoon makes gains along the east coast

The monsoon is standing pat on the west coast while making gains over the east coast on Sunday, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said.
The seasonal rains have advanced into most parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh, the Bay of Bengal and coastal Orissa; entire North-eastern States; and parts of Gangetic West Bengal and Sikkim.

Northern limit

The northern limit passed through Mumbai, Pune, Osmanabad, Hyderabad, Waltair, Cuttack, Burdwan, Malda and Gangtok.
The IMD assessed that conditions are favourable for its further advance into entire central Arabian Sea and parts of north Arabian Sea; entire Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh during the next three days.
The monsoon is also tipped to cover southern parts of Gujarat and Chhattisgarh; parts of Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal; entire Sikkim; and parts of Jharkhand and east Bihar during the next three days.
Meanwhile, the ‘low' over the west-central Bay persisted for the fourth day on Sunday and continued to pull in the south-westerly flows over the Arabian Sea and the Bay.

Stubborn system

The stubborn system has defied model outlooks that suggested a slow but measured westward movement across the peninsula and into the Arabian Sea.
On Wednesday, the US National Centres for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) located the system ‘half over sea and half over land' straddling the south coastal Andhra Pradesh coast
The system may hang in over the region for another day but may start to weaken subsequently before fading out entirely, the NCEP outlook suggested.
A cyclonic circulation is tipped to spring up off the Gujarat coast towards alter this week and could start puling in the flows to itself.
Once this starts, areas to the southwest might see a temporary weakening of the flows, as seen by Dr Akhilesh Gupta, leading operational forecasters and Advisor to the Department of Science and technology. The Global Forecasting System model of the US Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC) showed a core of rains prowling the Konkan-Mumbai-Gujarat coast from mid-week this week.

Slow grind

The system is shown to put itself into a slow grind while raining it down over the coastal areas of the region over the rest of the week.
The FNMOC too saw flows to the southwest getting affected as a result.
However, the precipitation outlook from both the NCEP and FNMOC ventured to suggest that the west coast as a whole would continue to receive varying amounts of rainfall during the week ending June 20.
Entire peninsula and the southern parts of central India would have been covered by the monsoon during this period while heavy rains might erupt over east and north-east India.
The following week (June 21-29) might see a return of ‘fireworks' along the west coast while the southeast coast (most of Tamil Nadu) would see a weakening in rainfall activity.
But the monsoon would have made further advances in the east and northeast, even running up to parts of the northwest (including west Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Punjab and Haryana).
Only Rajasthan would be left out of the footprint of monsoon by June 29 up to which extended NCEP forecasts were available on Sunday.
Meanwhile, an IMD warning said that the ongoing strong monsoon flows would trigger isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would over the north-east; Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Orissa, West Bengal and Sikkim during the next two days.
Extended forecast until Friday suggested an increase in rainfall activity along west coast, south Gujarat and over the Northeastern States.
In separate warnings for respective regions, the Chennai Met centre on Sunday said squally weather with wind speed reaching 50-60 km/hr is likely along and off the Kerala coast and over Lakshadweep area during the next 24 hours. Strong onshore winds from a westerly direction with speed reaching 45-55 km/hr is likely along and off the Karnataka coast during this period.
Strong offshore winds from a southwesterly direction speed reaching 45-55 km/hr are likely along and off the Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts as well.

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