In sympathy, the western trough off the coast suddenly shot into action, and precipitated heavy rains along the Konkan/Goa coast on Thursday (24th.), wiping out the fears of reducing rainfall there due to the "break Monsoon" scare. And, the monsoon axis, as if in obeyance, has retreated its threatening stand, by forming a core of 992 mb far away from the Indian land mass,deep into the Sindh desert. The correct place for the western end of a typical axis.
The low in the bay is likely to become ‘well marked' soon.That's the repeated expectation since the last 24hrs,but as and when it does, it should travel west into India, and merge into a W.D. approaching from the northwest, and set up rains over the Gangetic plains, and rain in some places in the North, bringing some respite from the severe heat.
But as estimated, the interiors of the peninsula region are relatively drier. Rainfall figures of interior Maharashtra and peninsula cities are still wanting, and rains are badly needed there. And may remain so for the next 2/3 days.
Mumbai has got more than its a fair share of drenching. With Colaba recieving 210 mms of rain in the last 24 hrs, ended Friday morning, the June total has leaped to 909 mms. Now thats a whopping 495 mms above the noraml, or +54%, for this time of the year. The all time high for June is 1280 mms.
But the all India average is -11%, a big improvement from last year, after the disastrous 54 per cent deficit recorded up to June 25 last season. The year 2009 had witnessed the worst drought in three decades.
The +ve regions are the areas where the monsoon has not yet arrived. Like Rajasthan, with+214%. But mainly due to the interaction of the remant of Phet with a W.D. over the region. -ve is in the East.
One of our readers has rightly commented today, that Mumbai is recieving very good rains in spite of no system or active MJO, either from the bay or the Arabian Sea. Defying forecasts, the off shore trough along the west coast, a permanent feature during the monsoon, has shown "its strenght" in the last 4 days and produced very good rainfall along the Konkan and specially off the Mumbai coast.
You see, the trough has been "going on and off" very frequently. It formed a embedded vortex, which suddenly disappeared, without crossing the coast. But still precipitated rains off the Mumbai area (see previous blog). Now today, its Northern end has abruptly moved North to the Saurashtra coast. While observing the trough. I had judged about 100 mms of rain for Mumbai Thursday/Friday, but Thursday itself brought 210mms in Colaba, but 120 mms in the suburbs.Sporadic and differentiating.Santa Cruz total till today is 643 mms !
Ahead,I see the rains lessening a bit in Mumbai during the weekend, only to pick up slightly from Monday.
Further Monsoon movement will depend on the behaviour of the low in the bay. Dont see much prospects of the low picking up till Monday.Hence, rainfall in the interiors of Maharashtra, Karnatak,and eastern plains of Northern India will be restricted. But rainfall can be expected, next 2 days,in Chattisgarh and Eastern M.P. due to the weak low persisting.
Do not see rains advancing much into Saurashtra too.
With 5days to go, Mumbai june rain is all set to break previous record of 1200mm. It will be 1500mm!
ReplyDeleteMumbai breaks Augume - Karnataka wettest place - Cherrapunji of south.
ReplyDeleteJune 25 (Bloomberg) -- Mumbai received the highest monsoon rain in almost two decades this month, helping easing a water shortage in India’s commercial capital.
ReplyDeleteSouth Mumbai recorded 909.6 millimeters (35.8 inches) of rainfall from June 1 to June 25, the most since 1991, and precipitation in the suburbs was 643.8 millimeters, the most since at least 2008, data from the India Meteorological Department show.
Consistent rainfall over the catchment areas of six lakes supplying water to the city of 18 million people may prompt the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation to end water cuts of as much as 30 percent imposed last year after the driest monsoon showers in four decades drained reservoirs. The city got 3,300 million liters a day before the supplies were pared.
Mumbai, the capital of the Maharashtra state, the nation’s biggest producer of sugar and second-largest grower of cotton, got 210 millimeters in the 24 hours ended 8:30 a.m. today, the weather agency said, predicting heavy rainfall with gusty winds. The municipal corporation’s Disaster Management Cell said there has been no flooding in the city, Press Trust of India said, without citing anyone.
The city received 949 millimeters of rain on July 26, 2005, the heaviest downpour anywhere in India in a century. The deluge killed more than 400 people, grounded flights and cut road and rail links. Mumbai, home to the nation’s central bank and stock and commodity exchanges, has a century-old drainage system that makes it susceptible to flooding during the rainy season.
Beating Forecast
India’s June-to-September monsoon rains may be 102 percent of the 50-year average, exceeding the 98 percent forecast by the weather bureau in April, Junior Food Minister K.V. Thomas told reporters in New Delhi today.
Adequate rains may help output of rice, sugar and oilseeds after a drought last year spurred record imports, and increase water levels in reservoirs used by farmers to irrigate about 40 percent of the nation’s crop land and to grow winter crops, such as wheat and barley.
Storage levels in the nation’s 81 main reservoirs climbed to 18.282 billion cubic meters, more than double last year’s volume and 89 percent of the average of the past 10 years, the central water commission said on its website.
The weather office is scheduled to announce a revision to its forecast at 4 p.m. local time.
Yes, Agumbe total as on yesterday was 811 mms.Mahableshwar today is 492 mms! But highest total to date, in central/south region is Harnai at 1037 mms.Highest in India is Cherrapunji with 2487 mms, followed by Lakimpur with 891 mms.All totals from 1 June.
ReplyDeleteBeauty of Mumbai are its rains. A person has to experience to believe this - fury of nature. In weather record spanning 100 years, probably has never experience any drought.
ReplyDelete