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010900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 62.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 010235Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE. WITH IMPROVED CERTAINTY IN POSITION, TC 03A HAS BEEN RELOCATED WESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS AND INDICATES TC 03A HAS INTENSIFIED FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS DECREASED TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. TC 03A CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. BY TAU 72, TC 03A SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM CRESTS THE STR AXIS AND MOVES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, WHICH SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK. TC 03A WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, UNTIL BY TAU 96, WHEN TC 03A IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 19 FEET.
JTWC path
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This path projection shows a Gujarat & Pakistan border landfall.
Bad news for MONSOON in Kerala.
Kerala is HOT and sunny today, had some sporadic showers along coast.
IMD warning
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ARB 02/2010/05 Dated:01.06 .2010
Time of issue: 1130 hours IST
Sub: Deep depression over eastcentral & adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea -(Precyclone watch for Gujarat coast.
The deep depression over eastcentral & adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 01st June 2010 near latitude 15.5 0N and 63.50E, about 1050 km southwest of Mumbai, 1050 km south-southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 1120 km south-southwest of Karachi.
The current environmental condition and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify into a cyclonic storm and move initially in a north-northwesterly/northerly direction for next 24 hours and then recurve northeastwards towards Gujarat & adjoining Pakistan
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST) | Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E) | Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph) |
01-06-2010/0830 | 15.5/63.5 | 50-60 gusting to 70 |
01-06-2010/1130 | 16.0/63.0 | 55-65 gusting to 75 |
01-06-2010/1730 | 16.5/63.0 | 65-75 gusting to 85 |
01-06-2010/2330 | 17.0/63.0 | 65-75 gusting to 85 |
02-06-2010/0530 | 17.5/63.0 | 75-85 gusting to 95 |
02-06-2010/1730 | 18.5/63.5 | 85-95 gusting to 105 |
03-06-2010/0530 | 20.0/64.0 | 95-105 gusting to 115 |
03-06-2010/1730 | 21.5/65.5 | 105-115 gusting to 125 |
04-06-.2010/0530 | 22.5/67.0 | 115-125 gusting to 135 |
Under the influence of this system, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would commence over coastal areas of Gujarat from 3rd June 2010 and increase thereafter. Squally winds with speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting 75 kmph would commence along and off Gujarat coast from 2nd June 2010 and increase gradually.
Sea condition will be very rough along and off Gujarat coast from 2nd June 2010. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea.
Next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of 01ST June 2010
Satellite at 3pm IST
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