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010300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 63.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND CENTRAL CONVECTION DESPITE LIGHT TO MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 312115Z NOAA-18 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH THE CENTER POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THIS IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER ALSO SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING SYSTEM. A BUOY (23707) 110 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INDICATED SLP NEAR 1002.2 MB AND SST OF 30C AND A BUOY (23708) 110 NM NORTH INDICATED SLP NEAR 1000.0 MB AND SST NEAR 31C. THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER AN UPPER- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT, THE SYSTEM HAS A DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE. VWS HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. TC 03A IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN, CENTRAL INDIA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD BUT SHOULD ACCELERATE BY TAU 48 AS THE STR BUILDS. BY TAU 72, TC 03A SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM CRESTS THE STR AXIS AND MOVES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, WHICH SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK. BOTH THE GFS AND GFDN DISPLAY ERRONEOUS TRACKS THROUGH TAU 48 BUT COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THE GFS 500 MB HEIGHTS AND VORTICITY INDICATE TWO VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING CYCLONICALLY WITHIN AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THIS ERROR ACCOUNTS FOR THE ERRONEOUS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. THE GFDN INDICATES AN UNREALISTIC EASTWARD TRACK INTO THE STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. SINCE THESE ERRORS APPEAR TO OFFSET EACH OTHER, THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO BUT FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 10-15 KNOT PER DAY RATE BUT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 96 AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z
JTWC projected path
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The upper air current supports the projected path for cyclone "phet". Its aiming Gujarat & Pakistan.
Meanwhile from morning of 31-May, the rains over Kerala has reduced , today morning its almost dried up.
IMD warning
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ARB 02/2010/03 Dated: 01.06.2010
Time of issue: 0100 hours IST
Sub: Depression over eastcentral and adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea
The depression over eastcentral and adjoining westcentral Arabian Sea remained practically stationary and lay centred at 2330 hrs IST of yesterday, the 31st May 2010 near latitude 15.5 0N and 63.50E, about 1050 km southwest of Mumbai, 1050 km south-southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 1120 km south-southwest of Karachi.
The current environmental condition and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and continue to move initially in a northwesterly direction for next 48 hours and then recurve northeastwards towards Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast.
Under the influence of this system, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would commence over coastal areas of Gujarat from 3rd June 2010. Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph would commence along and off Gujarat coast from 2nd June 2010.
Next bulletin will be issued at 0830 hrs IST of 01ST June 2010.
Satellite shot at 8 am IST
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