Saturday, June 12, 2010

Arabian Sea put under watch for renewed churn

The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services has once again put the north Arabian Sea under watch for ‘tropical cyclogenesis' (likely formation of a monsoon depression) during the week ending June 14.
In its outlook, the CPC said that numerical weather forecast guidance and above average sea-surface temperatures support the potential development of a system over the region during this period.

On a scale of three (high to moderate to weak), the CPC assessed as ‘moderate' the chance of development of the system. Other leading forecast agencies too have been indicating the possibility of an existing ‘low' in the west-central Bay of Bengal crossing the peninsula and emerging into the Arabian Sea to trigger a chain of events leading to the formation of the system.
The system is forecast to cut a path to the north, intensify and lie parked off the Gujarat coast for sometime, according to latest outlook by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
Around this time, some churning would take place in the head Bay where a counterpart system would likely be thrown up, an outlook that the ECMWF maintained on Thursday as well.
This would set up the ‘twin engines' on which the monsoon would propel itself into central India and adjoining northwest of India.
In fact, the ECMWF indicated that the Bay system would get a move to the west and park itself over Madhya Pradesh around June 20.

The CPC also enhanced (‘moderate') chances of increased rainfall for peninsular India and the west coast, including Mumbai and south Gujarat, during the week June 8 to 14.
The following week (June 15 to 21) could also likely see extended rains for south peninsular India even as numerical weather forecast guidance suggested enhanced monsoon circulation in the region.
The Global Forecasting System (GFS) model of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) generally supported the outlook saying that the west coast and the head Bay would witness enhanced activity during June 11 to 17.
The following week (June 18 to 24) may see deep convection sitting over the Mumbai-Gujarat region and the head Bay.
Meanwhile on Thursday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update that the monsoon has advanced into parts of Konkan, Goa, south Madhya Maharashtra and north interior Karnataka, coastal and south interior Karnataka and more parts of Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

The northern limit of monsoon passed through Ratnagiri, Sangli, Bijapur, Gadag, Anantpur, Bapatla, Agartala, Dhubri and Gangtok.
Conditions are favourable for further advance of monsoon into some more parts of Maharashtra, north interior Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh during the next two days.
Isolated heavy rainfall has been warned of over the Northeastern States, the west coast, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Wednesday's ‘low' over west-central Bay persisted. Under its pull effect, the monsoon flow over Arabian Sea is expected to intensify during the next three days.
The outlook until June 13 spoke of the possibility of widespread rain or thundershowers over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Konkan and Goa.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers have been forecast over Lakshadweep, south interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the Northeastern States and Rayalaseema.
According to the Chennai Met Centre, rainfall occurred at most places over Kerala and Lakshadweep during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning.
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at most places over Kerala and coastal Karnataka; at many places over coastal Andhra Pradesh, south interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep; and at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, north interior Karnataka, Telangana and Rayalaseema.
Isolated heavy rain has been warned of over Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal Karnataka and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next two days.

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