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JTWC
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(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 57.2E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 56.5E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS WELL DEFINED LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IN APPROXIMATELY
20KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW SOURCE
THAT IS PROVIDING GOOD VENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 90.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF
CONVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN OVERALL LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. A 160009Z
WINDSAT SCATTEROMETERY PASS SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING WITH NO INDICATION
OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
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