Monsoon Watch - 9

By Friday late night, the depression (erstwhile "Laila") over coastal Andhra Pradesh moved north-northeastwards and weakened into a well-marked low pressure area over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telengana. The rainfall area has now moved into the coastal Orissa region, but much less in intensity.We can see the winds in the 30-40 knts range around the 2 systems.(IMD Wind Map).
With the development of a low level convection over Comorin Area, we can expect the Monsoon to further move Northwards,covering the Comorin area, and the whole of Sri Lanka.With the Westerlies now at 30 knots,we can expect this within the next 2 days. Hence, the Monsoon's Arabian Sea branch will be at the doorstep of peninsula India.

Further 2 days ahead, after the advance into Sri Lanka by today/tomorrow, I think we can get a surety of its advance into Kerala around the 24th./25th. of May.
The only hesitation on my thinking on this is the ITCZ. The wind map shows the ITCZ along the equator stretching from Africa upto the Bay of Bengal.This parameter, the line, should move into the 5N region around the South Arabian Sea to carry the embedded Monsoon current along with it. Normally, I do not have doubts that this will hold up the advance, as In the Bay, the ITCZ is at 5N.

As on today, I pesonally still feel the Monsoon's advance will halt for 4/5 days after reaching upto coastal Karnataka. This may happen, as discussed before, because the thrust we see now is a result of a "rebpond reaction", and may fizzle out temporarily. 



Posted by Rajesh (http://rajesh26.blogspot.com)