Deep Depression "92B" .. Update #1

JTWC:
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1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 89.6E TO 14.0N 84.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 88.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
87.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 88.6E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM EAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AROUND A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EARLIER 170315Z ASCAT PASS
CONFIRMS THAT A WELL-DEFINED 20 TO 25 KNOT CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
A 171108Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES MARKED CONSOLIDATION HAS
OCCURRED WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION RINGING AN
EASILY IDENTIFIABLE LLCC. SEVERAL BANDS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO WRAP
TOWARDS THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM LIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
MULTIDIRECTIONAL VENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS, AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181500Z.

Latest Sate. shot
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JTWC : Projected path
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If this system continues its NORTH path then the South-west current will reach Kerala coast as expected on 23-May.
Already we can see heavy showers just west of Maldives Islands.

IMD warning
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BOB 01/2010/02 Dated: 17.05.2010
Time of issue: 2000 hours IST

Sub: Deep Depression Over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas: Precyclone
Watch

The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas moved northwestwards
, intensified into a deep depression and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 17th May 2010
over southeast Bay of Bengal near latitude 11.00N and 88.00E, about 850 km east-southeast of
Chennai, 900 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1300 km south of Kolkata.

The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models
suggest that the system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move initially in a
northwesterly direction towards Andhra Pradesh coast.


Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques,
estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Date/Time(IST)
Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
17-05-2010/1730
11.0/88.0
55-65 gusting to 75
17-05-2010/2330
11.5/87.5
55-65 gusting to 75
18-05-2010/0530
12.0/87.0
65-75 gusting to 85
18-05-2010/1130
12.5/86.5
65-75 gusting to 85
18-05-2010/1730
13.0/86.0
75-85 gusting to 95
19-05-2010/0530
14.0/85.0
75-85 gusting to 95
19-05-2010/1730
15.0/84.0
85-95 gusting to 105
20-05-2010/0530
16.0/83.0
95-105 gusting to 115
20-05-.2009/1730
17.0/82.0
95-105 gusting to 115

Under the influence of this system, coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh, are likely to
experience fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls from 19th May 2010.
Squally wind with speed reaching 55-65 kmph likely to commence along and off Andhra Pradesh
coast from 18th evening.

Sea condition will be very rough to high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from
18th evening. Fishermen are advised not venture into the open sea.

The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts. are being informed
accordingly.

Next bulletin will be issued at 0230 hrs IST of 18th May 2010.