Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall has been reported from the north-eastern States and the southern peninsula overnight on Tuesday.
The causative north-south trough ran down from east Uttar Pradesh to north interior Karnataka across Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha with embedded upper air cyclonic circulations over east Uttar Pradesh.
SQUALL WARNING
A warning issued by India Meteorological Department (IMD) and valid for the next two days said that isolated thunder squalls would occur over the north-eastern States, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar and Orissa.
According to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the northeast would be awash with moisture from the Bay of Bengal for as long as the second week of May.
The NCEP has suggested that convective available potential energy (CAPE) values, which indicate the possibility of unstable weather (thundershowers or thunderstorms), would stay elevated during this week over the west coast also.
While the CAPE values are shown sneaking into interior Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh in the east, a convective weather system (embedded cyclonic circulation in a western disturbance) would drive moisture into the Gujarat and southwest Rajasthan during the week.
The rest of the west coast will witness volatile weather during this period as will large parts of the southern peninsula, with moisture-laden winds from adjoining seas expected to blow into interior peninsula.
RAINS IN SOUTH
An update from the Chennai Met Centre said that rainfall occurred at most places over Kerala and at a few places over Telangana, coastal and south interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning.
Isolated rainfall occurred over Rayalaseema, Lakshadweep and Tamil Nadu while mainly dry weather prevailed over north interior Karnataka and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
The forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers may occur at many places over Kerala and Lakshadweep and at a few places over coastal and south interior Karnataka.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh and north-interior Karnataka.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
As for north-west India, the region is bracing to receive some weather from an induced cyclonic circulation that is lying parked over central Pakistan and is expected to move further east.
The parent western disturbance is likely to affect the western Himalayan region during the next two to three days, the IMD said.
Satellite imagery on Tuesday morning showed the presence of convective (rain or thundershower-causing) clouds over parts of the Northeastern States, southeast Bay of Bengal and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Low to medium clouds (partly cloudy conditions) were seen over parts of the western Himalayan region, Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan, West Bengal, Sikkim, south peninsular India and southeast Arabian Sea.
Updated forecasts until Friday suggested the possibility of fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over Assam and Meghalaya and scattered rain over Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Extended forecasts until Sunday said that fairly widespread rainfall activity would occur over the Northeastern States while it would be isolated over east and south peninsular India.
Scattered rain or thundershowers are expected to occur over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during next two days and isolated rain over Uttarkhand on Wednesday.
Isolated dust storms or thunderstorms are likely over Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh during the next two days.
Meanwhile, heat wave conditions prevailed over parts of Himachal Pradesh and isolated pockets of north Rajasthan, Bihar and Gangetic West Bengal during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning.
Maximum temperatures have begun to pick up over parts of northwest, central and east India. The highest maximum of 44.5 deg Celsius was recorded at Sri Ganganagar in Rajasthan.
No significant change in maximum temperatures is expected over the plains of northwest, central and east India during next 24 hours but a slight fall make take place thereafter.
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