Where is North-East showers and Cyclone??
It's November now and we have not got the October quotta of Rain and not even a single LOW over Bay yet! and Not going to be one until 10-Nov-09 according to GFS models.
Certainly there are signs of Cyclone potential building up over south Bay.
Here's the Cyclone potential map... suggests a good energy formation south Bay along the 5th parallel.
and here's the Sea Surface Temperature Map.. it shows a HOT bed near East of Srilanka.
GFS models suggest a LOW pressure trough forming just along Eastern Srilanka on 2-Nov-09 will touch TN Delta coast and then travel all along the south-east coast and showers will reach upto Bangladesh coast on 7-Nov-09.
Will 2009 northeast monsoon be vigorous over tamilnadu, will it cover drought hit interiors? Seems very weak monsoons. For dry tamilnadu to become wet it should rain atleast 3-4 months nonstop. It is not strong like in Mumbai where at times it rains 600mm-1000mm in 24hours non stop for months. Also weather patterns is changing, central india - Maharashtra, Gujrat-Saurashtra are receiving more rains while south - Tamilnadu, Rayalseema, Karanataka are slowly turning dry and desert like condition. I hope our scientific models will do some analysis.
ReplyDeleteWill 2009 northeast monsoon be vigorous over tamilnadu, will it cover drought hit interiors? Seems very weak monsoons. For dry tamilnadu to become wet it should rain atleast 3-4 months nonstop. It is not strong like in Mumbai where at times it rains 600mm-1000mm in 24hours non stop for months. Also weather patterns is changing, central india - Maharashtra, Gujrat-Saurashtra are receiving more rains while south - Tamilnadu, Rayalseema, Karanataka are slowly turning dry and desert like condition. I hope our scientific models will do some analysis.
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