Heat is UP !!!

Taken from Jim's blog, www.accuweather.com

It is hot, with few exceptions, throughout the Subcontinent in South Asia. Witness three-straight days of 100 degrees F (38 degrees C) at Mumbai-Santa Cruz (ended Sunday). And today, Monday, Akola, eastern Maharashtra, reached 111 degrees F/43.8 degrees C.

Normal temperatures over the Subcontinent as a whole are very high and still climbing by the day. It will top out somewhere between late April and late June, depending upon location, with heat in the south topping out first. In this light, that it has become hot is no revelation. Yet, over a wide area, this heat has become strong sooner than usual.

--Looking forward, there is little reason for a big shift in overall heat over the Subcontinent through at least this week. The subtropical Westerlies have nearly left the area south of the Himalaya and Hindu Kush allowing subtropical high pressure aloft to dominate. True, there will ripple eastward over the Subcontinent during this week of a weak short-wave trough in the Westerlies ("Western Disturbance").

By their nature, such waves have relatively cool air in their core, so slight trimming and reshuffling of the heat will happen. Maybe, the west will "cool" (by a few degrees C) first as the core of the highest heat shifts to the east. This would be followed by a slight cooling in the east as a new hot core sets up over the west.

--I have been asked what the heat means with respect to SW Monsoon onset. Short answer: I do not know. I have not studied the mechanics of the SW Monsoon any more than in a superficial way. There is a school of thought that says that relatively strong heating ahead of the SW Monsoon may bring it on early. Maybe so.