Peninsular India and parts of central India are forecast to receive isolated to scattered rainfall during this week that would also witness the dawn of the New Year 2010.
South peninsular India is still being impacted by the easterly wave, though associated weather activity has shifted to the west coast and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea.
Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are still at elevated levels (up to 30 deg Celsius) over this region, which supports convection and cloud-building.
SURPLUS MONSOON
This is expected to help maintain, if not add to, the 10 per cent surplus the north-east monsoon season has notched up at the end of the penultimate week ending December 23.
Of the 36 Met sub-divisions, at least 24 received excess or normal rainfall thus far, while it was deficient in eight, an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
But, the four sub-divisions in the extreme northwest - west Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Saurashtra-Kutch – continued to wallow in the ‘scanty' category.
The rain-bearing western disturbances have largely failed them since they lacked enough ‘spin' to wet the landscape. But the immediate east and south-east to these areas received adequate rainfall.
As for the south, outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) is forecast to stay negative (a proxy for expected cloudiness) over equatorial Indian Ocean until mid-January if international model prognosis is to be believed.
This would go to support the case for a trough of low pressure around the area during the period and, by extension, associated weather activity.
This is exactly what the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) predicts for the rest of the month and into the New Year, with a likely weather system thrown in over Sri Lanka around January 6.
‘PHYAN' EFFECT
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has said that the week ending January 3, 2010, would see a warm south-east Arabian Sea push moisture into west-central and central peninsula supported by westerly flows (almost mimicking Cyclone Phyan flows earlier during this season).
The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at the University of Columbia too tends to agree mostly with this outlook in its six-day forecast ending December 31.
The following week (January 4 to 12), according to the NCEP, is likely to see the scene once again shift to southwest Bay of Bengal. But the core of the rains would get pushed east-northeast over the open Bay of Bengal under westerly influence.
Meanwhile, the Chennai Met Centre said in its update on Sunday that rainfall was reported from a few places over Lakshadweep, coastal and south interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal and south interior Karnataka. Isolated rain or thundershowers has been forecast over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
CHILL IN NORTH
North and north-west India have been blanketed by a winter chill with minimum temperatures falling to below normal by 2 to 5 deg Celsius over parts of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. Cold wave conditions prevailed over isolated pockets of Punjab and Haryana where the minimum is below normal by 4 to 5 deg Celsius. The lowest minimum of 0.2 deg Celsius was recorded at Amritsar.
An IMD forecast has said that cold and strong northwesterly winds would prevail over the Indo-Gangetic plains for three more days.
A feeble western disturbance is likely to affect Jammu and Kashmir during the next two days. But the warmth that it carries in front would not be sufficient to cause any large change in minimum temperatures over the plains of northwest India.
Given this, cold wave conditions are likely over isolated places over Punjab and Haryana.
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