Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Mercury dip offers cold comfort ahead of New Year

North and north-west India continued to reel under winter chill as a cold snap loomed large threatening to extend a ‘limb' further into east and north-east India.

There is no signal yet of the arrival of a strong western disturbance system, the warmth around which from lower pressure and ascending air could likely offer some respite.

COLD COMFORT

In what could likely be cold comfort for revellers, no such system is expected to affect northwest India at least during the next five days when the year turns into the ‘New.'

Cold wave conditions prevailed in parts of Haryana, Punjab and of Himachal Pradesh and at isolated places in east Uttar Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning, an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

Maximum temperatures were below normal by 2 to 4 deg Celsius over parts of Punjab, Haryana, Bihar and West Bengal.

Night temperatures too were below normal over Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand, Orissa and Assam.

MAY HEAD SOUTH

However, they were above normal over south Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and north Karnataka due largely to cloudiness from moisture feed traced to south-east Arabian Sea.

On Monday, the lowest minimum temperature of minus 0.5 deg Celsius was recorded at Sarsawa in Uttar Pradesh.

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction is of the view that the cold snap would become entrenched over east and northeast India during the first 15 days of the New Year.

The peripheral ring of seasonal chill would progressively filter into central India (Madhya Pradesh and north Maharashtra) before sending cooler winds into peninsular India.

Some parts of this region, especially south interior Karnataka and adjoining Rayalaseema, could feel the bite during this phase.

Arrival of a western disturbance is indicated around January 5, but it remains to be seen how strong the system would be and to what extent it could alter weather over the north-west.

But a feeble western disturbance is likely to affect western Himalayan region during the next 24 hours. Light to isolated rain or snow has been forecast over Jammu and Kashmir.

Meanwhile, a confluence of winds is taking place over central and adjoining peninsular India. This has also been breeding some unsettled weather over the region.

WIND CONFLUENCE

The IMD located a smorgasbord of cyclonic circulations dotting the landscape backed up by troughs of low pressure over the adjoining seas – south-east Arabian Sea and south-west Bay of Bengal.

Cyclonic circulations with associated wind flow patterns were stayed perched above Lakshadweep; coastal Tamil Nadu and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal; and Konkan-Goa and adjoining Madhya Maharashtra.

The Regional Met Centre, Chennai, said in an update that overnight rainfall has been reported from most places over Lakshadweep; at many places over coastal Karnataka and at a few places over interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep and at a few places over Kerala and interior Karnataka.

Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Isolated rainfall has also been forecast along west coast, central and adjoining east India and the south peninsula.

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