And It's huge core cloud mass is strong from early morning to till now and it's growing as well.
Cyclone ward - past 12 hrs satellite loop, till 8:30pm IST.
Practically it has not moved anywhere.
JTWC and IMD predicted that the system will move west and cross the north-east coast of Srilanka around 6pm IST.. but this did not happen.
In fact visual evidence shows that it has slightly moved in North-east direction.
Will Cyclone Ward survive over open seas till 14-Dec-09, 6pm ??
OR will it move west? north-west? or North-east?
COLA model suggests that it'll move north-west to come near Tamilnadu and then move north-east.
EFS model suggests a west movement, skirting northern tip of Srilanka and dissipating over central TN coast.
?????
JTWC: warning 8:30pm IST.
---------------------------------
Almost same as previous warning.
131500Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 82.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC
WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION. A 131144Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES A WELL
DEFINED LLCC WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER AND
CONVECTION DISPLACED 60 NM TO THE EAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC WARD IS STILL LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05B IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER SRI LANKA NEAR TAU
24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 12 FEET
JTWC: predicted path, 8:30pm IST
---------------------------------------
Also same as previous path prediction.
IMD: warning 8:30pm IST
---------------------------
Sub: Deep depression over the southwest Bay of Bengal.
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of today, 13th December 2009 near lat. 9.00 N and long. 83.00 E, about 200 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 400 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 400 km east of Pamban. The system is likely to move in a westerly direction and cross north Sri Lanka near Lat. 9.00 N around noon of tomorrow, the 14th December, 2009. Subsequently, it is likely to move in a west-southwesterly direction, emerge into Gulf of Mannar and cross south Tamil Nadu coast between Kanyakumari and Pamban around afternoon of 15th December, 2009. The system moved very slowly during past 12 hours and is also expected to move slowly for some more time.
No comments:
Post a Comment