Cyclone "Ward" -- Update - #8 (Now a Deep Depression)

Cyclone "Ward" is now a Depression.
With Huge cloud mass around its core.
Still its a very slow mover in south-west direction.
We still didn't believe that this system will die over Srilanka as suggested by both IMD and JTWC.

Very interesting GFS model prediction
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In fact COLA gfs model suggests that the system will weaken over the same place as it is now (2:30pm IST) and it'll emerge near the North Tamilnadu Coast on wednesday, 16-Dec-09.

According COLA GFS, that this system will never make landfall whether its over Srilanka on 13-Dec-09 or over North TN coast on 17-Dec-09... but it'll move North-east into Bay and then Die around 20-Dec-09.

IMD: warning 2:30pm IST
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Sub: Deep depression over the southwest Bay of Bengal.
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal slightly moved southward and lay centred at 1130 hours IST of today, 13th December 2009 near lat. 9.00 N and long. 83.00 E, about 200 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 400 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 400 km east of Pamban. The system is likely to move in a westerly direction and cross north Sri Lanka near Lat. 9.00 N around early morning of tomorrow, the 14th December, 2009. Subsequently, it is likely to move in a west-southwesterly direction, emerge into Gulf of Mannar and cross south Tamil Nadu coast between Kanyakumari and Pamban around early morning of 15th December, 2009.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over north coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry during next 48 hours. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over south coastal Tamil nadu during next 24 hours. Rainfall at most places with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls ( ≥ 25 cm) is also likely over south coastal Tamilnadu for the subsequent 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 Kmph are likely along and off south Tamil Nadu coast during next 48 hours . Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph is also likely along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast during next 24 hours. Sea condition will be very rough to high along and off south Tamil Nadu coast and very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts.

Damage expected: Minor damage to loose and unsecured structures
Action suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into the open sea.

JTWC: warning 2:30pm IST
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130900Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 82.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING CONVECTION.
A 130057Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC
WARD IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS
DISPLACING MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05B IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MAKES LANDFALL WITH SRI LANKA. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET

JTWC: predicted path 2:30pm IST
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Satellite shot at 1:30pm IST
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