It's a slow mover, so we can wait till 12pm IST for results.
Chennai and some area along Tamilnadu coast received some good long showers until early morning of 13-Dec-09.
JTWC: warning 5:30am IST
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POSITION NEAR 9.0N 82.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH-
EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BASED ON NEW INFORMATION, THE TRACK FOR TC
05S HAS BEEN SHIFTED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST, AND THE TRACK SPEED HAS
BEEN DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANIMATED INFRARED SATEL-
LITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ORGANIZATION TO TC 05B HAS IMPROVED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH DEEP SYMMETRIC CONVECTION BUILDING OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TO LLCC IS SLIGHTLY DIS-
PLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTER OF THIS CONVECTION DUE TO A
LOW AMOUNT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES TO TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH OF TC 05B. LANDFALL WITH SRI LANKA IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 24,
WITH THE LLCC TRACKING INTO THE PALK STRAIT BY TAU 36. DUE TO THE
WEAK DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL, THERE IS NOT A GREAT
EXPECTATION FOR THE LLCC TO MAINTAIN ITS ORGANIZATION WHILE TRACKING
ACROSS SRI LANKA. THE REMNANTS OF THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA, AND WILL BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED
BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 14 FEET
JTWC: predicted path
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IMD: warning & path, 2:30am IST
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Sub: Cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over the southwest Bay of Bengal weakened into a deep depression:
The cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over southwest Bay of Bengal moved southwards and weakened into a deep depression over the same region. It lay centred at 2330 hours IST of yesterday, 12th December 2009 near lat. 9.50 N and long. 83.50 E, about 350 km east-northeast of Jaffna (Sri Lanka), 400 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 450 km east-northeast of Pamban. The system is likely to move in a west-southwesterly direction and cross north Sri Lanka near Lat. 9.00 N around noon of today, the 13th December, 2009. It is then likely to emerge into Gulf of Mannar and cross south Tamil Nadu coast between Kanyakumari and Pamban around night of 13th December, 2009.
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over north coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry during next 48 hours. Rainfall at most places with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls ( ≥ 25 cm) is also likely over south coastal Tamilnadu during same period.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 Kmph are likely along and off south Tamil Nadu coast during next 48 hours . Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph is also likely along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast during next 24 hours. Sea condition will be high along and off south Tamil Nadu coast and very rough to high along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts.
Damage expected: Minor damage to loose and unsecured structures
Action suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into the open sea.
IMD's Hand drawn, path so far & predicted path::
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Satellite shot at
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Satellite shows that the system has gathered strength overnight as compared to yesterday(12-Dec-09) 4pm IST.
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