Monday, December 14, 2009

Cyclone "Ward" -- Update - #10 (Just a depression)

Cyclone "ward" overnight slowly moved to west and dissipated.
now 8:30am IST, it's very close to north-east tip of Srilanka.
There's a chance that it'll skirt the northern tip of srilanka and make a landfall along the central Tamilnadu coast in another 24hrs as just a LOW pressure system.
There's a 95% chance that this system will cause very heavy showers along the central, and south-east coast of Tamilnadu in another 24hrs.
Under this influence the North-East monsoon current will be active all along the Tamilnadu coast.
Heavy to moderate showers possible along the coast and over some parts of interior Tamilnadu.

Satellite shot at 7:30 am IST
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JTWC: warning 5:30 am IST
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140300Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 81.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH-
EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE WEST. CONVECTION IS SPORADICALLY DEVELOPING AND
DISSIPATING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM
MOVING TOWARDS SRI LANKA AND MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UPON MAKING LANDFALL WITH SRI
LANKA. ONCE THE LLCC MOVES BACK OVER WATER, AROUND TAU 24, THERE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. COMPLETE DISSIPATION
IS EXPECTED AS TC 05B MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN INDIA. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 11 FEET.

JTWC: predicted path 5:30 am IST
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IMD: warning 1:30 am IST
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Sub: Deep depression over the southwest Bay of Bengal.

The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at 2330 hours IST of yesterday, 13th December 2009 near lat. 9.00 N and long. 82.50 E, about 130 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 330 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 350 km east of Pamban. The system is likely to move in a westerly direction and cross north Sri Lanka near Lat. 9.00 N around noon of today, the 14th December, 2009. Subsequently, it is likely to move in a west-southwesterly direction, emerge into Gulf of Mannar and cross south Tamil Nadu coast between Kanyakumari and Pamban around afternoon of tomorrow, the 15th December, 2009.

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