"96B" for last 3 days, now it's "05B"

JTWC:: Warning::

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TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM

SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS SUFFICIENTLY

CONSOLIDATED AND MEETS THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS

ACCORDING TO DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE SYSTEM HAS

SLOWLY DRIFTED NORTH WHILE DEEPENING OVER THE PAST FEW DAY, AND IS

EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOME THE PREDOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM.

CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM SITS BENEATH A POINT SOURCE, WHICH IS PROVIDING

LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND PRONOUNCED RADIAL OUTFLOW. OUTFLOW
IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE CYCLONE INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW AS WELL. EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG ZONAL JET RUNNING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIA, IS LOCATED
LESS THAN 4 DEGREES TO THE NORTH OF THE TC. GFS AND NOGAPS FIELDS
INDICATE THAT THE JET WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO AROUND 15N BY TAU 48,
ALLOWING FOR SLOW TO STEADY INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MODEL

GUIDANCE IS LIMITED TO JUST A FEW CONSENSUS MEMBERS AND THERE IS

OVER A 600 NM SPREAD BETWEEN THE SOUTHERNMOST (GFDN) AND NORTHERN-

MOST (WBAR) MEMBER AT TAU 72. BOTH GFS AND NOGAPS, THE REMAINING TWO
CONSENSUS MEMBERS, DROP THE CIRCULATION AFTER THE FIRST 12 HOURS.
THE FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRST 36
HOURS, THEN SPEEDS UP BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
TO THE NORTH (AND CONSENSUS SLOWS).

JTWC:: Predicted Path::

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Latest satellite shot::

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IMD warning - 20:30 Hrs, IST

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Dated: 11. 12. 2009
Time of issue: 2030 hours IST

Sub: Cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal: Cyclone alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast: Yellow Message

The cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 1730 hours IST of today, the 11th December 2009 near lat. 8.50 N and long. 84.50 E, about 300 km east-northeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 550 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 700 km south-southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast during next 48 hours.
However, satellite derived steering wind in upper troposphere suggests the possibility of northerly/northeasterly movement of the system. Considering all the above, the system is under watch
Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry from tomorrow, the 12th December 2009 morning. Subsequently, increase in rainfall activities with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over south coastal Tamilnadu from tomorrow, the 12th December 2009 evening onwards.
Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph are likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu and Puducherry coasts from tomorrow, the 12th December 2009 morning. Sea condition will be very rough to high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.