The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) seems to have categorised the Arabian Sea weather system as a depression on Monday with estimated surface wind speeds ranging between 25 and 30 knots (46 to 55 km/hr).
India Met Department (IMD) classification of a depression requires that winds speed up to between the threshold 17-27 knots (31 to 50 km/hr) range.
But no declaration of a depression in the Arabian Sea was forthcoming on Monday. The IMD update merely said that the well-marked ‘low’ over Lakshadweep is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours.
WARM SEAS
The JTWC update valid at 2.30 p.m. said that satellite imagery of the area of convection located around 555 km west-northwest of Kochi featured multiple bands of deep convection consolidating about the Low Level Circulation Centre (LLCC), the storm nucleus.
Due to the increased convective consolidation fuelled by the very warm seas off the southwest coast, the JTWC upgraded the potential for the development of a significant tropical storm to ‘good.’
The latest satellite picture (5.30 p.m.) put out by the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre showed that the system may already have come under the influence of a dominating westerly trough.
This has caused the convection bands to stray into north-northeast into west-central India. Leading international models had hinted at the possibility of the system as a whole being driven this way inland.
Meanwhile, on Monday, the IMD said in its update that the eastward-bound westerly system has crossed into the country across the northwest border. Precipitation outlook from the US National Centres of Environmental Prediction suggested that the ongoing rains may weaken after the Arabian Sea system makes a landfall over the next two days.
But the Kerala coast and the Tamil Nadu coast would continue to witness rain or thundershowers triggered by residual moisture being fanned across the peninsula by the easterlies during until Monday next.
An update from the Chennai Met Centre said that the northeast monsoon was vigorous over Tamil Nadu, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema while being active over Kerala during the 24 hours ending Monday morning.
Fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over Maharashtra and Goa during the next three days.
Scattered rain or thundershowers is also likely over west Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan from Thursday. A warning for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over coastal Karnataka, Konkan, Goa and madhya Maharashtra. Fishermen were advised not to venture into sea along west coast.
Rainfall occurred at most places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema and Lakshadweep; at many places over Karnataka; and at a few places over Telangana. Isolated rainfall occurred over north coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Forecast until Wednesday said that rain or thundershowers are likely at most places over Kerala, Lakshadweep and coastal Karnataka; at many places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and interior Karnataka; and at a few places over Telangana.
A warning valid for the period said that scattered heavy with isolated very heavy rain is likely to occur over Kerala and coastal Karnataka.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep area.
The Chennai Met Centre has also warned of squally weather with wind speed reaching 50 to 60 km/hr along and off the Kerala and Karnataka coasts and over Lakshadweep during this period.
IMD satellite pictures showed convective clouds over parts of southeast and east-central Arabian Sea, south Bay of Bengal, south Andhra Pradesh, coastal areas of Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
An IMD forecast until Thursday said that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over extreme south peninsular India during the next 24 hours and decrease thereafter.
Outlook until Saturday spoke about the possibility of significant decrease in rainfall activity over south peninsula, Maharashtra and Goa.
The prevailing western disturbance has already caused light to moderate rainfall at a few places over northwest India. Scattered to fairly widespread rain/snow has been forecast over western Himalayan region from Tuesday.
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