The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has hinted at the possibility of a low-pressure area over the southeast Arabian Sea off the Kerala coast over the next five days.
According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), it would likely be a case of an already existing ‘low’ just to the south of Sri Lanka migrating into the region.
BY WEEKEND
ECMWF updates on Tuesday said that this ‘low’ may materialise by this weekend. The system would slowly track north-northwest to emerge into south-east Arabian Sea over the next two days.
The system is later shown as tracking to the north along the Kerala coast and intensifying in the process until November 11 before coming under the ‘pull’ force of a newly developing convection over south-southwest Arabian Sea.
This ‘drag effect’ from below is seen as gradually weakening the strength of the system off the Kerala coast even as the former consolidates further the churn around itself.
The arrival of a westerly trough around November 10 would see both the systems getting wrapped up within the larger trough.
No two systems within a single large trough can ramp up in strength simultaneously, all other conditions remaining the same. In this manner, the weather system along the Kerala coast would be made to ‘blink first.’
Forecast updates for the week ending November 10 put out by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction say that coastal Tamil Nadu would continue be the biggest beneficiary of the seasonal rains.
Interior Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala are shown as sharing the spoils to some extent, which are expected to be above normal during this week of the year under reference.
PENINSULAR RAINS
Meanwhile, an IMD outlook said that isolated to scattered rainfall activity will get triggered over south peninsular India and Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next 24 hours and increase thereafter.
IMD outlook until Sunday said that scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is expected over south peninsular India and coastal areas of Orissa and Andhra Pradesh.
Isolated heavy falls are likely over Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh.
The Chennai Met Centre’s outlook until Thursday said that rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and at a few places over interior Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka.
A warning valid for the period said that isolated heavy rain is likely to occur over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
Meanwhile, over north India, maximum day temperatures were above normal by 3-5 degree Celsius over Gujarat, Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh and the North-East and by 2-4 degree Celsius over the west coast, coastal Andhra Pradesh, south peninsula and interior Maharashtra.
Satellite cloud imagery showed convective clouds over parts of southwest and west-central Bay of Bengal. Low and medium clouds were seen over parts of northwest, the North-East States and peninsular India.
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