With one day left, monsoon deficit worsens to 23 %

The 2009 southwest monsoon is in 23 per cent deficit, as on Tuesday (September 29), according to the latest update from India Meteorological Department (IMD). Heavy ongoing rains over the peninsula on the last day of the season on Wednesday are not expected to make much difference, making it one of the worst monsoon years since 1877. STUCK TO ROOTS Meanwhile on Wednesday, the well-marked 'low' resolutely held to its moorings carved out since the last two days and did not show any signs of westward movement that would take it inland. Model predictions continued to show westward movement but couldn't suggest from exactly when. The extended stay mainly over seawaters would translate into more showers over the southern peninsula but could also cool down sea-surface temperatures, according to Mr J. V. Singh, Senior Scientist at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMWRWF). This might weaken the prospects of any follow-up system approaching in, as a remnant of erstwhile Ketsana from the South China Sea. IMD satellite map showed clouding over extreme southeast Bay of Bengal on Wednesday. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) too supports this outlook and suggests that prevailing well-marked 'low' may manage to wheel ever so slowly across the peninsula and show up over the west coast around October 5. In the mean time, the cooler west-central Bay waters left behind by the well-marked 'low' would have denied fuel for an incoming pulse to intensify to any conceivable strength. It is, however, shown to set up some activity over the warmer waters just to the south over southwest Bay off the Tamil Nadu coast. NEXT 'LOW' The ECMWF has still maintained its outlook for a full-fledged 'low' to shape up over the west-central Bay around October 8. It would likely be masterminded by a westerly trough venturing deep into the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal one after the other. ECMWF predictions once again posited the 'low' as straddling the north Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh coasts around October 10, up to which forecasts were available. According to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the ensuing wet weather may envelop the peninsula and parts of central India until mid-October. Meanwhile, the IMD has forecast fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Orissa and Andhra Pradesh during the next two days. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls to very heavy falls has been forecast over Maharashtra, Goa and Karnataka during the next four days. Overall, the scattered rainfall activity over the extreme south peninsula, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh is expected to continue during next three days. Satellite pictures on Wednesday showed convective clouds over central Bay of Bengal and parts of southwest Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, Andhra Pradesh, south Maharashtra and Karnataka. A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over coastal Orissa, south Madhya Maharashtra, south Konkan and Goa. VIGOROUS MONSOON An update from the Regional Met Centre, Chennai, said that the monsoon has been vigorous over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and north interior Karnataka while being active over Rayalaseema and coastal and south interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning. Rainfall occurred at most places over Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep, coastal and north interior Karnataka as well as at many places over Kerala and south interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall was reported from Tamil Nadu. Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at most places over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana; and at many places over Kerala, Lakshadweep, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Karnataka. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Isolated heavy to very heavy rain has been warned of over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during the next two days. Isolated heavy rain is also likely over Kerala, Lakshadweep area, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Karnataka during the same period.