Monsoon withdrawal process gathers momentum

Withdrawal of southwest monsoon seemed to have acquired a sense of urgency with more areas emerging out of its influence on Monday.

This has reduced humidity levels but caused day temperatures to rise over many parts of northwest, east and central India.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that the monsoon has withdrawn from Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, entire Madhya Pradesh and many parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra.

WITHDRAWAL LINE

The withdrawal line passed through Forbesganj, Ranchi, Raigarh, Yeotmal, Ahmednagar and Alibag on Monday.

Conditions are favourable for further withdrawal from the remaining parts of east and northeast India during the next three days.

A short-term outlook for October 15 to 17 said that the weather is likely to be mainly dry over most parts of the country outside south peninsular India where isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers is likely during the next four days.

The IMD expected no heavy rainfall at any part of the country during the next five days.

The maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to fall gradually by about 2 degrees Celsius during the next five days.

Satellite imagery on Monday showed convective clouds over parts of southeast Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea.

These seas are predicted to be in a state of flux through the course of the week, according to international models.

THUNDERSHOWERS

The Chennai Met Centre said in its update that rainfall occurred at a few places over interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Monday morning. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and coastal Karnataka.

Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala.

Isolated rain or thundershowers have been forecast over Karnataka, Lakshadweep and Andhra Pradesh.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) maintained the outlook for the nearly contiguous water bodies of west Pacific/South China Sea/Bay of Bengal to rhyme in unison beyond October 15 precipitating onset of northeast monsoon (winter or reverse monsoon).

The trough encompassing these seas held into place on Monday mostly by a re-energised tropical storm Parma is expected to hold as such even after Parma weakens after an expected landfall over south China.

In fact, international models showed at least two fresh areas of convergence to the southeast of the Philippines on Monday, one of which would go on to become another typhoon-in-the-making, the ECMWF outlook suggested.

This likely typhoon is predicted to make an eventful landfall over the Philippines around October 22 according to the ECMWF outlook available on Monday.

After weakening, the westward-tracking typhoon would still likely have a ripple effect on the Bay of Bengal downstream.