Latest forecasts from the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) seem to suggest that the ongoing rains over the southern peninsula may spill over into the first week of October, if not beyond.
The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) supports this outlook with forecast for a strong low-pressure area (even a likely depression) over west-central Bay of Bengal.
LATE 'LOW'
The 'low' is forecast to shape up off the Andhra Pradesh coast by September 28, the ECMWF said, adding that the late-September 'low' would travel west over the peninsula bringing rain to most parts.
The outlook for September 30 (up to which forecasts were available on Sunday) posited the system smack over the Vidarbha-Telangana region backed up with solid moisture feed enough to fuel its further westward journey.
The NCEP projections point to a scenario where the system goes on to cross the west coast and emerge into the Arabian Sea and track further west-northwest.
The week from September 28 to October 6 would, thus, see the thundershower cover being extended even into central India, according to the NCEP projections.
Meanwhile on Sunday, the predominant weather-driving north-south trough ran down Bihar to the Kerala coast cutting through the east-central peninsula.
The trough continued to feature an upper air cyclonic circulation over west-central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal.
According to forecasts, this system could linger on waxing and waning in strength to ultimately set the ground for the larger low-pressure area.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
Satellite pictures on Sunday showed convective clouds over parts of north and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal, southeast Arabian Sea, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and Karnataka.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update on Sunday that the scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity over the south peninsular India is likely persist during the next three days as well, up to which forecasts were available.
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls is also likely over the Northeastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during this period.
The three days ending September 25 (Friday) would see scattered rainfall activity over the north-eastern States. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is also forecast for parts of south peninsular India.
An update from the Regional Met Centre, Chennai, said that rainfall occurred at many places over coastal and south interior Karnataka; and at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during the 24 hours ending on Sunday morning.
Isolated rainfall occurred over Telangana and north interior Karnataka.
HEAVY RAINS
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh, coastal and south interior Karnataka and at a few places over Rayalaseema and Lakshadweep.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over Telangana and north interior Karnataka.
A warning valid for the period said that isolated heavy rain is likely over north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
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