Wednesday, September 02, 2009

IMD sees fresh Bay ‘low’ in 2 days

ISSUED ON: 31-Aug-09
The monsoon has been vigorous in Saurashtra and Kutch and active in Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura, west Rajasthan, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during the 24 hours ended Monday morning.

Widespread overnight rainfall was reported from Gujarat and coastal Andhra Pradesh while it was fairly widespread over Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Orissa and Punjab.

PARENT WHIRL The India Met Department (IMD) has put the west-central Bay of Bengal and the neighbourhood for watch for signs of a brewing low-pressure area around September 3 (Thursday).

A preparatory upper air cyclonic circulation is already present over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal. It is expected to descend to the lower levels of the atmosphere and deepen to set up the ‘low.’

Satellite pictures on Monday showed convective clouds over north Arabian Sea, west-central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.

The IMD has forecast fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over Gujarat during the next 24 hours. This is attributed to the remnant of the ‘low’ that triggered a revival of monsoon earlier last week.

On Monday, this upper air cyclonic circulation had shifted moorings from south Rajasthan and adjoining Gujarat to right above Gujarat and neighbourhood.

Fairly widespread rainfall has been forecast also over Andhra Pradesh, south Chhattisgarh and east Madhya Pradesh during the next two to three days in tandem with the evolution of the ‘low.’

A second round of revived monsoon rains will sweep across the west coast, central and adjoining peninsular India, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and parts of northwest India during the three days from Thursday, the IMD said.


Forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) show a trough squatting wide across north peninsular and adjoining central India by this time.

According to the ECMWF predictions, a ‘low’ could get embedded into this trough by September 7 and move west over central India for sometime before encountering a western disturbance dipping low from the north.

Entire northern two-thirds of the country would be brought under varyingly active monsoon conditions and resultant precipitation. This could hold on past September 10.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) sees the rain regime extending north from central India as well to the east, apart from the west coast until September 16.

RAINS IN SOUTH

Meanwhile, the Chennai Met Centre said that the monsoon has been vigorous over coastal Andhra Pradesh and active over Telangana and coastal Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Monday morning.

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