Monday, August 31, 2009

India's monsoon may be the worst since 1972

India's poor monsoon rains will improve slightly in their final month but will still end the June-September season about 20 percent below normal, a top official said, making this year's rainfall the worst since 1972.

Weak and uneven monsoon rains have ravaged India's rice crop and hit the sugarcane, soybean and groundnut crops as well as disrupting the flow of water into the main reservoirs, which are vital for hydropower generation and winter irrigation.

"We expect at least 4-5 percent improvement in the seasonal rainfall deficit for the entire season from the current level," Ajit Tyagi, director general of the India Meteorological Department, told Reuters on Friday.

India last suffered a monsoon failure in 2002, when rainfall was 19.2 percent below average through the season, and July rains were 54.2 percent below normal. India's crop output in 2002/03 fell 18 percent.

This year, June rainfall was the worst in over 80 years, while July saw a 5 percent deficit. August began with an exceptionally dry two weeks, followed by near-normal rains in the later part of the month.

From the start of June to Aug. 26, rains were 25 percent below normal, data showed on Thursday.

"In 2002, the seasonal rainfall deficit was 19 percent. The only difference is that this year's July rainfall was relatively better than 2002," Tyagi said.

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