Rains lash north-west, North-East

Rain-deficient North-West India, Bihar and the North-East continued to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall as a migratory monsoon trough has aligned itself in perfect accord. The axis of the trough passes through Ferozepur, Ambala, Bareilly, Gorakhpur, Bhagalpur and Kolkata before dipping into east-central Bay of Bengal.

The India Met Department said fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls was likely along the Himalayan foothills, the North-Eastern States and parts of the plains of North-West India during the next two days.

A warning valid for the next 24 hours said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall was likely over West Bengal, Sikkim, East Uttar Pradesh, North Bihar, Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh.

Coastal Andhra Pradesh and north coastal Tamil Nadu may gain during this phase even as East-Central India braces for a wet session over the next few days.

This is expected to materialise with the formation of a low-pressure area over the north-central Bay by the weekend, which international models say could be ‘moderately strong.’

The Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has maintained its outlook for the ‘low’ with prospects of intensification.

However, international models do not indicate any dramatic rainfall over central India that could signal a revival of the monsoon.

But this may just rev up further the wet session over East and North-East India, and to some extent East-Central India. Surprise gains are also likely in parts of Andhra Pradesh, adjoining Vidarbha, east Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

WESTERLY FEED


The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) continued to show the peninsular branch of a bifurcated westerly flow dipping into the equatorial Indian Ocean to the south of Sri Lanka and streaking away East into the West and Central Pacific.

This would mean that the Bay of Bengal may not host a monsoon system strong enough to attract the away-going flows until August 9 up to which forecasts were available.

This may delay a comprehensive revival of the monsoon till that date, though the other arm of the westerly flow fanning into the plains of the North may hold on gamely.

Meanwhile, a truncated offshore trough overnight got a fresh lease of life on Wednesday and reset itself from the Karnataka to the Kerala coast.