Questions on the monsoon

The lackadaisical performance of the south-west monsoon has sent a nervous shiver across the country. The likely emergence of El Nino, the name given to the warming of the Pacific Ocean and which often influences the Indian monsoon adversely, coupled with the failure of the monsoon to gather momentum in the key north-western agricultural belt, has added to the worry. Under the circumstances, the assertion by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) that much of the rain deficit in June will be made up in July (which is mostly over) and August has cut little ice. While some sense an imminent drought, resulting in a poor kharif harvest, the agriculture ministry still hopes that agricultural production will be in the normal range. The finance ministry is worried, as a drought is the last thing it would like to cope with during an economic downturn.

The monsoon should be viewed from three angles. From the hydrological angle, the situation is already disquieting. Most of the country’s reservoirs have been drawn down heavily, resulting in precariously low water levels. Though refilling has now begun in most regions, the reservoirs may not be adequate replenished to run hydel power plants at full capacity and cater to other water needs in the post-monsoon period. Most hydel power plants ran at less than 40 per cent plant load factor in June, though there has been some improvement subsequently.

From an agricultural viewpoint, the picture is more mixed. A delay of a couple of weeks in the onset of rains, as has happened in many parts of the country, is manageable as the peak sowing season in southern and central India extends up to mid-July and the monsoon has, fortunately, revived in these parts from the beginning of this month. The past three weeks have seen good rainfall in most parts of the country, barring the north-west and north-east. In the north-west, crop planting does not rely too much on the rains because 80 to 90 per cent of the cropland is irrigated; and in the north-east, which is a high rainfall region, even less than normal rainfall is good enough for seeding. Also, any shortfall in paddy planting can be made up by larger sowing of less water-needing crops like coarse cereals and cotton.

From the meteorological viewpoint, it is too early to pass judgment on this year’s monsoon. While rainfall in June was as much as 46 per cent below normal, the first week of July was near-normal and the second week 6 per cent above normal. That is what has prompted the IMD to estimate the total rainfall deficit at 24 per cent by mid-July, a figure that writers like Shreekant Sambrani have questioned. Central India, which was the most rain-starved in June, has received good rains in the past couple of weeks, as has the southern peninsula. Fingers now need to be kept crossed, because the level of precipitation in the coming fortnight will be critical to the nature of the 2009 monsoon