Monsoon is projected to be in an ‘exalted’ phase through mid-July

The monsoon has further 'advanced' into the remaining parts of Punjab and Haryana and isolated parts of north Rajasthan, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Wednesday.

The northern limit passed through Udaipur, Jaipur, Pilani, Hissar and Gangnagar.

The presence of a semi-permanent trough across the northwest border has been encouraging the movement of westerly troughs, says Dr Akhilesh Gupta, expert operational forecaster and Adviser with the Ministry of Science and Technology.

INTERACTION

The strong westerlies associated with the system are in turn seen interacting with a smattering of easterly flows over the plains bringing isolated heavy rainfall over the region during the past few days.

Isolated heavy rainfall has been forecast over Punjab, Haryana, east Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh.

But, unlike during a typical monsoon, the skies have invariably cleared up after the rains lifted.

The ongoing showers may last for two more days, following which the sun would start heating up the region.

This would continue until an anticipated anchor 'low' shows up over the head Bay of Bengal around July 7, which would send in stronger monsoon easterly flows along the east-to-west monsoon trough over the plains in the northwest.

Delhi and other parts of northwest India are expected to receive the 'real' monsoon showers two days, thereon, according to early model projections.

BUSY IN EAST

The IMD quoted current meteorological analysis and numerical weather prediction models to suggest widespread rainfall activity with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over east India and North-East India.

Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim would witness heavy rains during the next two to three days and over north eastern States during the next four days.

Isolated extremely heavy falls exceeding 25cm have been forecast over Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh.

OFFSHORE TROUGH

A persisting offshore trough extending from Konkan coast to Kerala coast will continue to cause widespread rainfall activity with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places along the west coast during the next 4-5 days.

Meanwhile, international weather models continued to indicate the prospects of passage of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave across the southwest and equatorial Indian Ocean in the next few days.

The MJO wave is expected to boost the ongoing monsoon over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

The monsoon is projected to be in an 'exalted' phase through mid-July when the peninsular seas would most probably be pulsating in unison with likely 'low's thrown in between