Monsoon active over north-east

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has still not commented on the status of the monsoon, which is anything but active or vigorous except in the north-east.

It is not a particularly strong monsoon now, a source in the Government said. Neither is it depressingly weak as is evident from the heavy rains along the Himalayan foothills and the north-east, which have been in deficit.

DIPS IN BAY

On Sunday, the axis of the seasonal monsoon trough passed through Amritsar, Ambala, Pilibhit, Raxaul, Malda, Krishnanagar and southeastwards into east-central Bay of Bengal.

The western end of the monsoon trough has shifted north of the normal, indicating a weak phase. And the westerly winds are blowing straight into the plains of north India.

But the southern end of the trough still dips into the Bay of Bengal pointing to some incipient activity, but not quite strong enough to support any significant weather over central or peninsular India.

The offshore trough along the west coast has shrunk in size and is lately discernible from the Maharashtra coast to the Karnataka coast, the IMD update said.

The monsoon has been active in Assam, Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Gujarat during the last 24 hours ending Sunday morning.

But it was subdued over Haryana, Punjab, east Madhya Pradesh, Marathwada, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, interior Karnataka and Kerala.

TO STAY WEAK

Satellite pictures on Sunday showed convective clouds over central and adjoining north-west Bay of Bengal, parts of south-east Bay of Bengal, north Andaman Sea, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and north-east India.

An IMD outlook for the next four to five days too said that subdued monsoon conditions are likely over central and peninsular India.

Meteorologists are now looking forward to the expected arrival of a westerly trough around mid-week , which could entrench 'weak monsoon' conditions over central and peninsular India.

The eastward (towards north-west and central India) shifting of the high-pressure region in the mid-high levels over the Middle-East would too be watched for its adverse impact on the Indian monsoon.

Model forecasts show this 'ridge' with suppressed rainfall regime poking its 'nose' from just across the border over Pakistan by August 4, but sulking at the sight of a building buzz in the Bay of Bengal.

It could not be confirmed if this likely 'low' would be strong enough to revive monsoon rains over the west coast and central India. Last week's forecasts had signalled the formation of a weak 'low' in the Bay by this time.

BUSY IN NORTH-EAST

Meanwhile, the IMD has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over the north-eastern states during the next four days.

Fairly widespread rainfall activity is also likely along the foothills of Himalaya and parts of plains of north-west India during this period.

A warning for the next two days said that heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh.

Isolated heavy rainfall has been forecast over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Extended outlook for the three days until July 31 spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls over the north-eastern States.