‘Low’ watch in Bay of Bengal

The eastern end of the migratory monsoon trough has reverted back to its moorings in the east-central Bay of Bengal after shifting briefly to lie entirely along the Himalayan foothills.

The eastern end of the trough had scooped itself out of the Bay enabling a major condition for a full-fledged weak monsoon phase being declared.

'LOW' WATCH

But this has now been reversed ahead of the formation of a low-pressure over North Bay of Bengal around Sunday.

The India Meteorological Department has been vacillating in its outlook for the 'low' over the last 24 hours or so.

But it limited the outlook for fairly widespread rainfall to just east and northeast India during the three days up to August 4, up to which forecasts were available.

No major activity is indicated for the northwest.

It would now take a full-fledged 'low' or depression, suitably endowed and properly oriented, to revive the monsoon. But models did not signal any such formation over the next 10 days at least.

This is because the peninsular branch of the bifurcated westerly flow is shown to extend into the west Pacific, where a strong typhoon is forecast to spin up during the next week.

The apparently west-northwest travelling typhoon is forecast to make a landfall over Taiwan and later east China around August 10, as per projections by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

MAY WEAKEN

The ECMWF too sees a 'low' spinning up in the Bay of Bengal around Sunday, but doubted whether the system would grow to any strength to favourably influence weather over central or adjoining peninsular India.

The system may instead weaken and die out, something that would be matched only by the calibrated growth and intensification of the west Pacific typhoon.

But the southeast coast of India is likely to see some wet weather, especially over coastal Andhra Pradesh and north coastal Tamil Nadu, as befits the pattern during a 'weak' or break monsoon.

Isolated rains have been forecast for parts of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Rayalaseema during the next two days, as per an update by the Regional Met Centre, Chennai.

This may scale up a bit, going forward.

During the 24 hours ending Thursday morning, the monsoon was active in Assam, Meghalaya, Bihar and Kerala.

It was subdued over Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Marathwada, Vidarbha, Telangana and Tamil Nadu.

RAINS FORECAST

Forecast for the next two days said that widespread rain with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over the Northeast.

Fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy falls have also been forecast over West Bengal, Sikkim and parts of plains of the northwest India during this phase but may later taper off.