After the Latest Monsoon Low??

Source:: Jim's blog, Www.accuweather.com
The latest Monsoon low dissipated over the northern Arabian Sea at the weekend after crossing Sindh (Pakistan) and Gujarat (India) with some flooding outbursts. My return was too late to gather much data on these. I do know that Chhor, Pakistan, got a thorough soaking. What is more, another extreme fall of rain hit seaside Kathiawar Peninsula, Gujarat state. This would be Veraval, where at least another 35 cm fell within one 24-hour stretch ended on Friday.

We do have a record for weather data out of Veraval, although there are some flaws. Still, it seems that seasonal rainfall has reached at least 150 cm since the start of June. I believe that this would be about two-times the normal yearly rainfall. All within about five weeks.

Seasonal rainfall to date has now exceeded normal amount (the slow start notwithstanding) in Mumbai, Pune, Rajkot, Indore, Nagpur, Bhopal and even Bikaner. All are in central and western/northwestern India. Also Karachi and, most likely, a good deal of southern and eastern Sindh.

Rainfall on the Subcontinent is most deficient from northern Pakistan through northern and eastern India to Bangladesh and the nearby northeast of India. Some amounts are at only half of normal amount. Also very short on rain, as a percent of normal, is the southeast of India, which is normally a "rain shadow" during the SW Monsoon. Thus, in times of amount, the shortfall is low.

--A to the weather setting on the Subcontinent, the key shifts taking place at the start of the week are 1) the dissipation of last week`s Monsoon low over the Arabian Sea and 2) the "flattening" of high pressure aloft over southern central Asia. Then, too, there is the loss of the well-marked easterly jet stream that held sway over the Subcontinent most of last week. In short, it would seem to be the makings of "Break Monsoon", a time with more "selective" heavier falls of rain mingled with wide areas having low rainfall.

What I see of numerical forecast models leads me to foresee "break monsoon" through the end of this week, at least. Yes, there will be areas of helpful rain, but coverage will be spottier and somewhat different versus the week gone by.

One spot getting long-awaited downpours even as I write is Delhi/New Delhi. At the Safdarjang Airport, rainfall was 7 cm within a few hours -- and still counting.