Monsoon update from Jim's blog (accuweather.com)

It took a good fortnight beyond the customary start date for the first outburst of rain to strike Mumbai on the west coast of India. The outburst happened mostly on Saturday with Santa Cruz picking up 127 mm. Other falls during the week raised the tally to about 180 mm--still far below the nearly 59 cm that normal falls during the month of June.

Elsewhere along the west coast, rainfall since early week has been about 240 mm at Ratnagiri (Maharashtra), and about 200 mm at Panaji (Goa).

Whether or not any of these amounts seem high, they are decidedly moderate for the region at this time of year. Indeed, these amounts are nearly comparable to the normal rainfall for several days during the latter half of June.

Away from the west coast of India, rainfall this week has tended to be deficient over the Subcontinent with wide areas having none to speak of. True, there have been spot downpours over the interior and the north east.

--The tropical depression that landed over the state of Gujarat at midweek was instigator of hit-or-miss downpours into the state of Sindh, Pakistan. It even rained meaningfully into the city of Karachi, as citizens have related to this writer.

--Major news this week from the India Meteorology Department (IMD) as an update was made to the seasonal forecast of SW Monsoon rains.

In short, the update is to call for 93 percent of long-period average rainfall for India as a whole (June to September). The original forecast was for 96 percent of average. The key difference is accounted for by the dearth in June rainfall to date. Forecast is also for full rainfall (101 percent) during August, for a relatively strong finish.

It would seem that the shift from La Nina to neutral ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) is the key variable in play here. The IMD also site the Indian Ocean Dipole as an oceanic index having at least the possibility of weighing upon the seasonal rain outcome.

--Looking forward, Subcontinent rainfall will continue to be "patchy" during the coming week with small areas of generous rainfall interspersed with wide areas of sparing to absent rainfall. Some return of weak subtropical Westerlies to the northern Subcontinent is forecast--this is a negative factor for the SW Monsoon and its rains.

One indicator for the week thereafter: the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to become more favorable for rising convective currents and the rains they tend to breed.