The GFS forecast seems to be varying from day to day.The latest i see from GFS is that there will not be a major cyclone but an easterly wave. But this might change again. Also i have generally observed that cyclones in December generally tend to be more southern bound towards TN - Nagapattinam or srilanka coast or at the max north towards south andhra. I am not sure if this may not be the case. But ever since i was in my school days which was about 15 years ago when i started observing cyclones in the bay, i have seen cyclones heading to orissa /WB coast in octobee or November. Never seen cyclones hit them in December.
Any statistics available on cyclones hitting orissa or Wesr Bengal in December ?
Mr. Chandru is correct. The Northern bay sea temperature will be COLD during December, this'll not support any Cyclones. That's why the cyclones tend to hit south during december. I think the coming up system will be a Deep-depression and WILL cross south-Andhra at the max.
GFS model now says cyclone approaching Andra coast by dec 4th. TN may be spared this time
ReplyDeleteYes, hope so... we ar and we'll be not in a position to take that.
ReplyDeleteits 11.30pm Again its pouring here in Anna nagar. No reservoir can take anymore inflows.
ReplyDeleteYes hope the future cyclone goes to Andhra.but the current NCEP GFS shows nothing abt the cyclone. may be there will be no cyclone by decemeber 4th
FNMOC NOGAPS showing formation of a Cyclone Near Tamilnadu by Dec 4th
ReplyDeletehttp://picasaweb.google.com/praddy06/Cyclones#5273821034763073282
FNMOC EFS showing formation of a Cyclone Near Tamilnadu by Dec 4th
http://picasaweb.google.com/praddy06/Cyclones#5273823290789667250
But..
NCEP GFS there is no clear picture wat happens to this system
http://picasaweb.google.com/praddy06/Cyclones#5273824835791467474
usually GFS is the best bet on predicting the track
it seems the link is not properly shown u can see the three models
ReplyDeletehere
http://picasaweb.google.com/praddy06/Cyclones#
Hi,
ReplyDeleteThe GFS forecast seems to be varying from day to day.The latest i see from GFS is that there will not be a major cyclone but an easterly wave.
But this might change again.
Also i have generally observed that cyclones in December generally tend to be more southern bound towards TN - Nagapattinam or srilanka coast or at the max north towards south andhra. I am not sure if this may not be the case. But ever since i was in my school days which was about 15 years ago when i started observing cyclones in the bay, i have seen cyclones heading to orissa /WB coast in octobee or November. Never seen cyclones hit them in December.
Any statistics available on cyclones hitting orissa or Wesr Bengal in December ?
Thanks,
Chandru
Mr. Chandru is correct.
ReplyDeleteThe Northern bay sea temperature will be COLD during December, this'll not support any Cyclones.
That's why the cyclones tend to hit south during december.
I think the coming up system will be a Deep-depression and WILL cross south-Andhra at the max.
It is raining heavily again now. I see some mild cloud formation near chennai in the Bay of Bengal.
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