Latest update on "92B"

This is the latest satellite pic... it seems the system has gained strength and moved north. Now it's almost parallel to Chennai and expected movement is north,...presently it's moving north.
Take a look at the latest bulletin from US Navy,
----------------
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 89.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 89.8E, APPROXIMATELY 595 NM EAST OF COLOMBO,
SRI LANKA. RECENT METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF IMPROVED PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION AND CONTINUED POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE. A PARTIAL 281457Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD, BUT BETTER ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AT THE CENTER AND
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LIES UNDER AN AREA
OF LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO HELP FUEL THE CONVECTION. DUE TO THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO FAIR.

Tropical Depression "92B"

We are tracking a tropical low pressure system "92B".
For the past week the southern bay of bengal was very active.
Past week's tropical disturbance was due to the sudden rise is sea temperatures over the south bay. Take a look at the past week and present sea temperature...


Now coming to the tropical low "92B"...first take a look at the satellite pics of last 3 days and now.



This system is quiet a huge one with good moisture feed from the rising sea temperature. The upper cyclonic circulation over the south central bay is still there...this will make the system to sustain.
However some numeric forecasts predict that the system will die down in another 3 days almost near the same location. Anyway keep your fingers crossed till next 48 hrs.
Take a look at the US Navy picture of the sysem.

Unusual Path ...

Here is an illustration of the unusual path traced by the unusual LOW pressure system.

Super March

Most part of March so far was Rainy... rainy!
This phenomenon is quiet unusal.
Let's see what happnd so far? and what's coming up?
Chennai has crossed the Normal rainfall average by a huge amount.
Yesterday Rain - 2.6 mm
24 Hour Rain - 2.6mm
Monthly Rain - 133.8mm (Mar. normal - 3 mm)
Yesterday (24-Mar-08) morning around 10 AM, all of a sudden it rained with lightning and it continued till 1 pm. In some parts of chennai rain was heavy and in others it was slight drizzles only. Most of the heavy rain was around south Chennai.
Today morning and now it's clear with some passing clouds.
Take a look at the past 5 days wind direction...

Yesterday's satellite pic


Today's satellite pic

This shows a huge mass of cloud formation over the south bay of bengal. The present activity and favorable conditions might make that mass of clouds to become a low pressure system in coming days.
Overall..We are at the end of winter and now starts the dreaded chennai summer.

Look at this from Dinamalar (22-Mar-08)

It's like monsoon here..wow

In chennai rain started after a week on Wednesday... slowly picking up pace and it was raining thru the nite of Thursday into Friday (good friday).
Rain was heavy and with 2 hrs interval... thru the day on Friday.
Here is some rain stats for Chennai.
Yesterday Rain - 59.8 mm
24 Hour Rain - 13.6mm
Monthly Rain - 126.4mm (Mar. normal - 3 mm)
Take a look at the system as of NOW.

These rainy conditions are quiet bizzare and not common in March.
The LOW formed over Gulf of Mannar moved over south extreme of South Tamilnadu and moved into parts of Maldives. This is the position as of Morning, Friday.
This system after gaining strength moved rapidly to the north and laid centered over parts of Lakshadweep.
As i write this blog, the system is still active and carrying a lots of cloud mass around it.
The numeric forecast shows there might be a another system moving in from South Bay.. in next 120 hrs.
So an unusual April ahead....!!!!

Rainfall amounts from South Tamilnadu

Ramanathapuram, Sathankulam (Tuticorin dt) and Sivakasi (Virudhunagar dt) 7
Theni, Pudukottai, Tondi, Ambasamudram (Tirunelveli dt) and Sattur (Virudhunagar dt) 5 each, Mudukulathur (Ramanathapuram dt), and Pamban 4 each, Thirumayam (Pudukottai dt), Kamudhi, Paramakudi and Tiruvadanai (all Ramanathapuram dt), Nanguneri and Sivagiri (Tirunelveli dt), Srivaikuntam and Tiruchendur (all Tuticorin dt), Tuticorin, Madurai, Melur (Madurai dt), Periyakulam (Theni dt), Ilayangudi, Manamadurai, and Tiruppuvanam (all Sivaganga dt), Sivaganga, Rajapalayam, Srivilliputhur and Watrap (all Virudhunagar dt) and Virudhunagar 3 each, Aranthangi (Pudukottai dt), Radhapuram (Tirunelveli dt), Kovilpatti, Ottapidaram and Surangudi (all Tuticorin dt), Kothagiri (Nilgiris dt), Kadavur (Karur dt), Chittampatti, Mettupatti, Sholavandan, Thirumangalam, Usilampatti and Vadipatti (all Madurai dt), Andipatti and Uthamapalayam ( both Theni dt), Devakottai and Karaikudi (both Sivagangai dt), Kodaikanal Natham (Dindigul dt), Minicoy and Munnar (Idukki dt) 2 each and Adiramapattinam, Orathanadu (Thanjavur dt), Muthupet and Needamangalam (both Tiruvarur dt), Arimalam and Keeranur (both Pudukottai dt), Manamelkudi, Kadaladi (Ramanathapuram dt), Sankarankoil, Shenkottai and Tenkasi (all Tirunelveli dt), Vilathikulam (Tuticorin dt), Kanyakumari, Mylaudi (Kanyakumari dt), Thammampatti (Salem dt), Valparai, Coonoor, Ketti (Nilgiris dt), Manaparai and Marungapuri (both Tiruchirapalli dt), Madurai Airport, Peraiyur (Madurai dt), Tirupattur (Sivaganga dt), Piravom (Ernakulam dt), Panambur, Bajpe and Puttur (Dakshina Kannada dt) 1

Raining over South Tamilnadu

Chennai got good rains for 3 days last week, after that it's hot & humid.
The day time temperature is going up... and the cloud movement is from EAST-SOUTH-EAST.
Early and mid mornings are with medium cloud cover and after that it's clear all the way.
This is the pattern for the past week after the rains.
Take a look at some news pics from the past week rains in chennai.


We are nearing the end of good temperature days for this season.
For past week or so, south tamilnadu is getting massive amounts of rainfall.
This is due to the passing low pressure weather system from south bay of bengal and srilanka.
Even we are hearing "it's like monsoon season down here" from people of south extreme tamilnadu.

Rainy March...!!!

This rainy spell is very unsual at this time of year.
Chennai is experiencing frequent heavy & sharp showers from evening of 12-Mar-08.
Initially it was light... and now (14-Mar-08) it's heavy with more frequency and even with Thunder.
Past 24 hr rain record = 20.2mm
Yesterday = 15.6 mm
Crossing the monthly average...Monthly Rain - 32.4mm (Mar. normal - 3 mm)

Let's look at WHY this phenomenon????
There's lot of moisture over the southern bay of bengal & the wind direction is almost equal to a north-east monsoon.
Look at it...

The COLA- Numeric forecast suggests a Deep Low formation over the southern Bay of bengal over the next 48 hrs.
Take a look...


As i finish writing this post, there's a huge thunderstorm rolling in from East

Final Chill...! and Now what??

I was away with work for the past 15 days.
Now back on time.
For the past 2 weeks, chennai experienced low temperatures & dry weather.
Low of the month was : 20.2°C (4/3/08)

Take a look the past 5 day Temperature & Wind direction.
You can look at the gradual increase in temperature.

The wind direction is also good, favoring a shower..!
From today morning, there's a lot of cloud cover.
There's a 100% chance of small showers in the coming days.

This may be the shower that brings the all expected SUMMER to Chennai.