Monday, December 10, 2007

Potential Tropical Cyclone

This is the latest advisory from JTWC Issued at 10/1800Z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZDEC2007//
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.3N 85.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 86.1E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A 101414Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED
LLCC WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EAST
QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR
3N 86E, JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, WHICH IS PRODUCING GOOD
DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

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