Latest on Bay circulation "91B"

5:30pm, Wind analysis show that the circulation over E-central Bay is getting organized, currently positioned at 14.1 N , 88.3 E.
Pressure around 1007mb.
The nature of the circulation is elongated from North to South.

8pm, Satellite IR shows good convective activity over N,N-E,E quadrants and the system is seen getting a good circular feature.

NAVGEM model indicates a Westerly track and then W-S-W towards N Tamilnadu coast during next 36hrs.

But GFS model suggests a N-W or W-N-W track and then a small S-W drift towards S Andhra coast.
Both the models expect the system to make landfall as LOW on evening or midnight of Wednesday, 20-Nov.

Till Wednesday evening less showers for S Andhra coast, N,central Tamilnadu coast and #Chennai.
Showers expected to continue over W-ghats of Kerala, Tamilnadu, S,S-central Tamilnadu till evening of Wednesday, 20-Nov.

#Bangalore - 5:40pm, "Heavy rain over Bannerghatta road, Domlur zones" ... https://www.facebook.com/groups/blrwwatch/

6pm, HEAVY rain over central, S, N-W Tamilnadu, S Kerala and into S Karnataka ... http://ow.ly/i/3L1E4

More cold nights ahead for N,central,N-W,E,S-central India

RT @rajugana: Bangalore 2.30pm, Dark passing clouds in the morning, however Sky cleared ..a pic clicked at 9.00am http://t.co/ONjeekIXhk 

3pm, Scattered moderate rain seen over central, central-coast, S tip Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/3KW6g 

Adampur (Punjab) and Najibabad (Uttar Pradesh) records a low temp of 6.5 C today morning.

A weak upper level W.D trough is expected to touch N,N-W Kashmir on Wednesday ... http://ow.ly/i/3KWjG

November COLD conditions over N,N-W,Central,East India is expected to persist during next 3 nights,mornings ... http://ow.ly/i/3L0Fk 
Even more, the COLD conditions are expected to penetrate into S Maharastra, N,N-central Karantaka, N Andhra, Odisha and Chatisgarh in 2days 

During the past 7 days, Night temps are below normal over MOST zones in India, especially over N-central,East-central http://ow.ly/i/3L15I 

Fresh LOW over E-central Bay - "91B"

RT @joesat: @weatherofindia #Chennai #palavakkam Monday morning blues as it rains consistent and gloomy 8:00 am. 
#Chennai - Polichalur zone got good heavy drizzle from 8:45am to 10am.
#Chennai - 1pm, showers seen near East of Kanchipuram town. Cloudy with mild temperature now.

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Today, another circulation has popped over E-central Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/3KSHK 
A good easterlies is behind this system.

1pm, Satellite IR show good circulation and convective activity around the system, and being tracked as "91B" ... http://ow.ly/i/3KSZb 
12:30pm, Latest satellite IR also show heavy showers along central Tamilnadu coast and S tip Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/3KT3O 

The fresh LOW over E-central Bay "91B" .. expected to move W-N-W initially without much intensification during next 36hrs.
Due to good easterlies, "91B" may swiftly reach S,central Andhra coast as a Marked LOW on 20-Nov, Wednesday ... http://ow.ly/i/3KTcD 

Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai expected to have LESS rain on Tuesday, till Wednesday noon.
Due to 91B, Heavy/moderate rain expected to start along S,Central Andhra coast and even over N coast Tamilnadu, #Chennai on evening, 20-Nov

In the meantime another LOW is expected to push into S-E Bay on 21-Nov... this can become Cyclone "Helen" and reach N Tamilnadu coast.

Bay will be buzzing again from Thursday,18th: Precipitation resumes for the East Coast from 22nd.

A UAC will form "in situ" in the Bay in the Central region on 18th at around 15N. The UAC will descend to sea level, track Westwards, and cross the East Coast of India in the Southern AP region around the 22nd. Rains very heavy along AP coast and interiors, but good rains all along the coast of TN also. Could be numbered by Tuesday (BB-19).

Hyderabad gets rains on Friday 22nd.

Chennai will get a break in rain intensity from Tuesday thru Thursday. 
Friday, 22nd, the rains commence again. 

On 21st November, potential Low could form in the SE Bay, South of Andaman Islands in the 7N region. Can have a good potential for further developing possibly upto DD or cyclone stage.

www.vagaries.in

A fresh W.D trough is expected to reach N Pakistan, W,N-W Kashmir on 20-Nov ... http://ow.ly/i/3Kw1k 

4:30pm, Heavy rain continue along S,central Andhra coast, Showers also seen over central,S Kerala, S Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/3Kw7g 

RT @Ask_Someone: @weatherofindia 1545 hrs, No Rains in last 6-7 hrs, Intermittent Clouds, Often Sunny in SW Bangalore regions, @rajugana 

#Chennai - 5pm, mini sharp showers may push into city, suburbs in next 1.5hrs

COLD NORTH India, today morning Adampur (Punjab) records 5.8º C

#Chennai - Rainfall till 8:30am today, Nungambakkam = 80.4 mm, Airport = 123.9 mm and IWM station, Polichalur = 138.3 mm

#Bangalore - 1:49pm, "Raining in CHIKKABETTAHALLI zone"

#Chennai - 2pm, Warm, Temperature around 30 C.

More chance of rain in next 2hrs.

RT @rajugana: Bangalore 8.30am, Wet Sunday; rained overnight and Now, Dark clouds lingering around, sky pic. http://t.co/emMxgH6KgF 

#Chennai - 11:26am, Showers now stopped over most of S,W,E suburbs. Getting WARM !

Next 24hrs, More rain ahead for #Chennai, N coast Tamilnadu and S coast Andhra

The remnant of Depression is seen as a weak circulation over N-W Tamilnadu, Nilgiris, N Kerala and S-W Karnataka.. http://ow.ly/i/3Ksvh 

The circulation may emerge over Arabian sea in next 24hrs or fizzle out over land itself.
Before Monday evening, more Heavy rain expected along S Andhra coast, N Tamilnadu coast and #Chennai.
During next 24hrs, Scattered Showers expected over S,S-W,W Karnataka, Kerala, W,N-W,S,S-central Tamilnadu as well.

Chennai rain and the inland low

1.     After crossing coast the system moved in North-NWly direction and continuously draw wind from SEly direction through Chennai
2. This lead to incessant rain in Chennai

17.11.2013 RF [> OR =125.0MM]
SN	STATION	RF in mm
1	MAYILADUTHURAI	220.0
2	TRICHY JN	144.0
3	GOLDEN ROCK	138.4
4	SATTANUR DAM	127.8
5	MANALMEDU	127.0
6	VANDAVASI	126.0
7	CHEMBARAMBAKKAM	125.0