When NEM setting.

15.10.2013 /15Z upper wind

15.10.2013 / 12Z lower wind

The current upper level winds are predominantly South Easterly which can be reciprocated by North Westerly winds  in lower levels from ground.  [With respect to TN and South peninsula] This indicates that SWM is still in force.
SW [to] Westerly [to] NW [to] Northerly and then to NEly is the reversal pattern. However the reversal sometimes may occur very rapidly. The prolonged SWM may lead to frequent formations of low / depressions / cyclones in the Bay and indirectly help to boost NEM rainfall. 
What ever it may be we are getting rainfall.

Chennai - 6:20pm, sharp showers now over Polichalur zone.
"Upper level winds are from east"

NEM Watch -3

The current ENSO trend, which is neutral and the MJO, which shows  a weak phase till the 21st, and a "neutral phase from the 22nd till end of October. 

A rapid movement of the ITCZ towards the South, we see Easterlies picking up along the TN coast from Wednesday.
NE winds start their domination from Tuesday.
However, it can be assumed, seeing the November MJO and Easterly wave flow, with a couple of strong systems from the Bay, the NEM will be near normal in Chennai (Normal = 822 mms .Expected 800 mms). Overall we see the NEM can be above normal by 10% in TN (All TN average = 440 mms. Expected 500 mms) and about 10% above Normal in Vellor (Normal 414 mms. Expected 450 mms).
Bangalore may get its normal share of 225 mms for the season.
From the current trends, it seems the NEM will set in around the 22nd of October.We can assume the NEM to remain weak to moderate till the end of October. We see the Monsoon strengthening only in November.

On Wednesday, a low form in the Southern parts of the Bay, around the 10N/12N line.
The Low moves westwards, and gets embedded in an Easterly trough East off Sri Lanka along the 10/11N line. But due to lack of favourable parameters, it is apperant the easterly wave lacks strength, and may precipiatate only around Sri Lanka region (East coast)...

Chennai will get brisk East winds from Wednesday as a result.
As a line of wind discontinuity forms in the Southern Peninsula Interiors, we get thunder showers in interior TN and Karnataka from Tuesday thru the week.But, Thunder Showers in Chennai city on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Bangalore gets good thunder showers from Tuesday thru this week, due to the LWD.

from vagaries

Chennai - 6:07pm, Polichalur zone just had a 10min sharp shower .

Chennai - 5:10pm, 5 min drizzle over Polichalur zone

Phailin is now inland - What next ?

Analysis at 11:30pm shows that the Cyclone has moved inland almost 70% of the core.
Weakening seen, but still it's a category 3 storm, churning it's way into S-W,W Odisha.
Satellite IR at 11pm shows still the Cyclone has not lost its intensity, only the EYE of the system got disappeared.
The landfall was close to Vizagnagaram./ Dharmavaram.
The last (10pm) analysis of intensity when the system's center was over Sea.
      Pressure was around 949mb and winds was up to 200 kmph.

What next ?

~~~~~~~~~

During next 12hrs, Phailin will weaken and will be over S Odisha as a Cyclone.
After that the system is expected to track N-N-W into central,N Chatisgarh as Deep Depression.
By early hrs of Monday, the Depression will further weaken as Depression or well marked Low and move North into N Chatisgarh, E Madhyapradesh and pushing into S-E Uttarpradesh.
By Monday noon, Phailin will become as a low and expected to be over S-E Uttarpradesh.

As the Cyclone travels from S-coast Odisha to S-W,W Odisha and into Chatisgarh and into S-E Uttarpradesh... Heavy rain and winds expected over above mentioned zones from now and before Monday(14-Oct) evening.
Heavy rain expected over S,S-W Bengal, Jharkhand and central,N Chatisgarh before mid-noon of Sunday.
From noon of Sunday, Heavy rain also over E Madhyapradesh and pushing into S,S-E Uttarpradesh.
On Monday, Heavy rain expected over S,S-E,central Uttarpradesh and into W,S,central Bihar.

Tomorrow, Coastal, S Karnataka, N,N-E Tamilnadu and #Chennai also will get moderate showers.

Land fall near Vizagnagaram

[1] Peddapuram AWS (17.1N / 82.2E) at 121013/15Z reported 270/09kt [Westerly Nine knots] in South

[2] Khurdah AWS  (20.2N / 85.8 E) at 121013/15Z reported 100/20kt [Easterly twenty knots] inNorth.

Therefore the centre might have been in between. 

[4] Vizagnagaram AWS (18.1 N/ 83.4E) 121013/15Z reported 360/02kt [Northerly two knot]

Roughly it may be presumed that the centre has crossed close to Vizagnagaram./ Dharmavaram

"Phailin" located at 19N and 85E, has stalled in this position since 5 pm IST to 7.30 pm IST. In that period, it has weakened considerably, and at 8 pm IST, is located at 19N and 86E, just 20 kms South of Gopalpur. Core pressure is 938 mb and winds at 215 kmph. Still just within the official Cat 4 stage.

Presuming the resumed rate of 20 kmph tracking, it would have crossed the coast between 8.30 pm IST and 9 pm IST .
It is very very difficult to be precise and absolutely accurate for landfall without a proper defined centre. 

In effect, it could be said to have now crossed into land South of Gopalpur between 8.30 pm IST and 9.00pm IST Saturday !!. 

From Vagaries 

Phailin - 4pm, "started making landfall now" "Eye very near to Land"

Latest analysis show that the Cyclone is undergoing slow weakening, around half of the core has pushed inland.
     Still category 5 storm.
    Pressure is now around 929mb
    Wind gusts up to 240kmph
Satellite visible shot at 3pm shows the EYE is very near to Odisha coast.

The EYE will cross into land through Brahmapur at around 7:30 to 8pm.

Our prayers are with people of Odisha and N-E Andhra.

Super Cyclone "Phailin" Update @ 1.30 pm IST

Rains overnight till Saturday Morning: Gopalpur 56 mms, Cuttack 33 mms, Bhubaneshwar 60 mms, 

Located at 18.2N and 85.5E, it has maintained same strength at 920 mb and 260 kmph. 
Now, approximately 110 kms from Land , it can cross the coast ( Just South of Gopalpur) at around 7 pm IST, seeing the current speed of tracking. Before hitting land, clouds will get concised, and system will weaken rapidly on Land. 
The movement after landfall will be almost Northwards. 

This is due to the active WD now in the North. Last 24 hrs ended Saturday morning, there was good rainfall in Punjab  with Amritsar getting 67 mms, And in HP Dharamsala got 56 mms, Manali 14 mms, Delhi SJung got 39 mms, Palam 22 mms and in West UP, heavy rainfall in Hindon of 54 mms, and Meerut getting 13 mms..Jammu got 9 mms. Many places in the region recorded upto 10 mms of rain.