The rain spell from the previous low is all but over !

However, showers/thundershowers along the monsoon axis will continue.

We will now catch up, or rather chase up the other developments estimated in "vagaries", on the 13th.

A new low in the bay on the 17th ? Well, CMC says yes, it will form and move inland from the 18th.

ECMWRF and GFS say nothing is on the horizon ! two diverse views.

So, now lets wait and watch, it's a matter of 2 days. Bay of Bengal is putting up surprises !

Then, the next was the MJO push in the Arabian Sea. Yes, that's at least on stream. It has shown good clouding, and is heading towards the kerala coast.

Of-course lots of rain on the Kerala coast, and Karnataka coast. A little bit of rain creeping in the interiors of Karnataka is possible on Monday/Tuesday.

But its for a day only. Rain patch can move up along the west coast to hit the Maharashtra coast, that is around Thursday but I see it weakening by then.

On Tuesday/Wednesday (17th/18th), a local vortex is likely to form, for a day, just around the region east of Mumbai. So, some rain inland ,in the madhya Maharashtra region.

Mumbai: Slight change in the forecast put up on 13th. Monday, passing rains, sunny with 10 mms of rain. Rain intensity will increase for a day on Tuesday/Wednesday.Thursday, a sudden drop in the frequency of showers.Warm, or should I put hot ?

All IndiaTop Rainfalls, over a limit of 2200mms, from 1st. June to 15th. August 2010.

Cherrapunji: 5787 mms (435)

Agumbe: 4409 mms

Shirali: 3672 mms

Mahableshwar: 3037 mms (-1200)

Honavar: 2826 mms

Ratnagiri: 2823 mms (+698)

Mangalore: 2644 mms

Karwar: 2500 mms

Goa Pnjm: 2493 mms (+382)

Mumbai Clb: 2312 mms (+778)

Mumbai Scz: 2219 mms (+512)

Pradeep, please fill in the missing ones :)

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean. It is normally characterized by anomalous cooling of SST in the south eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and anomalous warming of SST in the western equatorial Indian Ocean. Associated with these changes the normal convection situated over the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool shifts to the west and brings heavy rainfall over the east Africa and severe droughts/forest fires over the Indonesian region. The name IOD is coined by Prof. Yamagata, Dr. Saji and other researchers of the climate variations research program of Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) to represent the zonal dipole structure of the various coupled ocean-atmosphere parameters such as SST, OLR and Sea Surface Height anomalies. Generally, this configuration is also called positive IOD. Infact, a negative IOD also evolves preceding/following a postive IOD, with reverse in the configuration of the positive IOD.

Courtesy : http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/

Weather Talk

By Mark Vogan

NATURAL VARIABILITY TO BLAME FOR EXTREME WEATHER AROUND THE WORLD!

I blame the extremes we have seen across the world as NATURAL VARIABILITY and the the stage the ocean and atmosphere's current cycle in in.... Have a warm and cold ocean at the same time and you drive weather weather... Like two widely contrasting air masses produce supercell thunderstorms and when you have a very warm, moist lower atmosphere and a very cold air mass aloft, that as well as other things provide the high octane fuel to power hurricanes.. So have a warm Atlantic and a rapidly cooling Equatorial Pacific, surely that will create feedback? Also, we just saw one of the stongest El Nino's on record right? Drought in many areas which commenced all the way back to winter, so doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that those drought areas may in fact see a warm summer. Drought and a powerful El Nino doesn't mix well and sure enough we have seen tremendous heat in Russia, my argument is this.... is this the only time in "earth's" history that this has happened?

Indeed, my reasoning for the Pakistan and Chinese floods is simple... have that much heat to the west in the perfect place, this will have to reajust the atmosphere surrounding.. to the east and south is of course the region home to one of the greatest seasonal weather shift on earth, the monsoon, when does all the heat occur over Russia? The heart of the monsoon season, drive the atmosphere's turbo of fuel (jet stream) down over the monsoon region and bingo, you've got added fuel to an alrready charged atmosphere...

The the meantime, there are places seeing cold, in fact South America has seen one of it's coldest winter's in decades so let's not get too easily laid astray by the hype of the media. REMEMBER, OUR "REAL AND TRUE" MEASUREMENTS ONLY DATE BACK TO 1970... I believe a heck of a lot of "extreme weather" happened by that, dating way way back thousands of years. Only difference today is we're here, recording and documenting stuff that wasn't before!

Full Blog Here.

Heavy showers forecast for Kerala & Karnataka coast from 15-Aug evening to 19-Aug... http://ow.ly/i/3cAp

4:30pm, Heavy & widespread showers over Madhyapradesh, Jharkand, Orissa, N. Chatisgarh and S. Bihar.... http://ow.ly/i/3cAg

Lesser rainfall in the Wyanad, interior parts of Karnataka including Bengaluru, Why ??.... http://ow.ly/2py9F

World feeling the heat- 2010 is becoming the year of Heat waves ... part 2 ... http://ow.ly/2py9h

Increasing temperatures will take a toll on rice production in Asia: Rogue “Peer Review” Study .. http://ow.ly/2py8A

Lesser rainfall in the Wyanad, interior parts of Karnataka including Bengaluru, Why ??

I attended a lecture given by one of the eminent environmental enthusiasts in Tirunelveli. He is of the view that warming in the upper atmosphere especially between 850 to 700 hPa is responsible for relatively lesser rainfall in the Wyanad, interior parts of Karnataka including Bengaluru. The usual monsoon trough or depression are NOT forming at sea level in Bay of Bengal. 


Leh the elevation of which is 11500ft [approximately 3.5km]receives usually lesser rainfall. A small portion of moist warmed upper air orographic-ally rose and burst into sudden rain over a small area. The intensity of rainfall is such that it triggers immediately mud slides.
[As happened in Ketty, Nilgiri district in Tamilnadu during NEM 2009] This can not be tied to global warming effects, but it is warming of upper air.

The volcanic eruption in Iceland during this Summer 2010 and the tectonic sub surface ocean floor was warmer due to vent in the floor and made Artic ocean warmer. This leads the ice in the Artic melt. The ocean is the culprit. Not the atmosphere.


posted by Kaneyen