International weather models are of the view that western disturbances would keep rolling in, one after the other, to extend their calming influence on weather over north-west India until March 20, if not beyond.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, in its outlook on Monday, that a “feeble western disturbance” may check into the region around Friday.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) seems to suggest that a weak system might already be impacting the region.
Strong system
This will be followed by a relatively stronger system by Wednesday/Thursday, which would be active for a day or two. Passage of the system to the east would let in strong north-westerly to westerly currents for the next few days.
According to the ECMWF, a much stronger system, an exceptionally strong one at that, might break into the region from March 16. The system is shown spinning up a low-pressure area the very next day, which could go on to become even a depression, over Rajasthan. This could potentially throw up the threats of heavy rains, high wind and hail to the standing wheat crop in the north-west.
On Monday, strong north-westerly to westerly winds were prevailing over parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains, the IMD update said.
Minimum temperatures were above normal over many parts of Gujarat, east and central India, some parts of peninsular and northeast India and isolated pockets of East Rajasthan.
Maximum temperatures, too, were above normal over many parts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, and east, north-east and peninsular India.
Cloud imagery
Satellite imagery on Monday showed the presence of low to medium clouds (partly cloudy conditions) over parts of western Himalayan region and the north-eastern States.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over parts of the north-eastern States during the next three days. A fall in minimum temperatures is expected over parts of northwest and adjoining central and east India.
A fall in maximum temperatures also is expected over parts of north-west and adjoining central and east India during this period.
Rains for south
Forecast until the weekend said that isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh and extreme south peninsula. Isolated rain or snow would occur over western Himalayan region.
The trough or wind discontinuity from Orissa to south Tamil Nadu through interior Andhra Pradesh persisted on Monday. An outlook from the Chennai Regional Met Centre said that isolated rain or thundershowers may occur over Kerala and interior Tamil Nadu, over the next two days.
Tuesday, March 09, 2010
Monday, March 08, 2010
East India heats up even as north-west cools heels
Temperatures have been rising over the eastern parts of the country over the past few days, especially Assam, Andhra Pradesh, north Tamil Nadu, parts of the north-east and extreme south peninsular India.
The maximum temperatures have reached 40 deg Celsius over some parts of Andhra Pradesh and isolated pockets of Vidarbha, according to an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD).
FINE OVER NORTH-WEST
But the benign presence of western disturbances, one of which is affecting north-west India, has continued to shield the region and its standing wheat crop from the extreme weather (to within the 30 to 25 deg Celsius range).
The cloudiness associated with the systems has had a calming impact on ambient temperatures.
The next one in the series of western disturbances is expected to roll into the north-west over the next 24 hours, the IMD update said.
It has also joined international models in the outlook for yet another western disturbance, a moderately intense one, around mid-week.
Maximum temperatures
Maximum temperatures over north-west and adjoining east India are expected to fluctuate coinciding with the arrival and exit phases of the westerly systems.
While the moisture and associated cloudiness brought in by the incoming system tend to cap maximum temperature levels, its exit takes away the clouds leading to rise in the ambient temperature levels.
On Sunday, strong north-westerly to westerly winds were prevailing over parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains.
The strong winds are likely to prevail over the next 2-3 days as well, the IMD forecast said.
RAINS FORECAST
Similarly, the prevailing western disturbance is likely to continue to affect the western Himalayan region on Monday too.
Satellite imagery showed low to medium clouds over western Himalayan region and the north-eastern States.
Isolated rain or snow has been forecast for Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the next 24 hours.
Scattered rain or thundershowers are likely over parts of the north-eastern States during the next two days.
minimum temperatures
While a fall in minimum temperatures is seen over north-west and adjoining central and east India during the next three days, a rise in maximum temperatures is forecast over north-west and adjoining central and east India.
Meanwhile, international models indicated a trend in which east and peninsular India would witness sustained heating in the medium term.
This is forecast to start propagating to the west and north-west in phases.
The International Research Institute (IRI) at Columbia University and the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are in agreement with this outlook.
‘OPEN HEARTH'
Seasonal forecast by the IRI for the summer months seems to pack a pleasant surprise for east India in as much as it sees only low probability of a deadly heat wave stalking the traditional backyard encompassing Orissa, coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Vidarbha.
‘Open hearth' conditions might shift elsewhere, with the highest probability for significant above-normal heating being indicated for coastal and southern tip of Tamil Nadu, the west coast and south and south-west Gujarat during April, May, June.
The heating process would start lifting gradually in the run-up to the onset of the south-west monsoon although extreme south peninsula and Gujarat might still witness flare-ups on the home stretch.
As for monsoon rains, the IRI maintained the outlook for maximum probability for normal rainfall going into June-July-August, though the onset phase in April-May-June tends to show some deficiency for eastern parts of the country – especially, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal.
The maximum temperatures have reached 40 deg Celsius over some parts of Andhra Pradesh and isolated pockets of Vidarbha, according to an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD).
FINE OVER NORTH-WEST
But the benign presence of western disturbances, one of which is affecting north-west India, has continued to shield the region and its standing wheat crop from the extreme weather (to within the 30 to 25 deg Celsius range).
The cloudiness associated with the systems has had a calming impact on ambient temperatures.
The next one in the series of western disturbances is expected to roll into the north-west over the next 24 hours, the IMD update said.
It has also joined international models in the outlook for yet another western disturbance, a moderately intense one, around mid-week.
Maximum temperatures
Maximum temperatures over north-west and adjoining east India are expected to fluctuate coinciding with the arrival and exit phases of the westerly systems.
While the moisture and associated cloudiness brought in by the incoming system tend to cap maximum temperature levels, its exit takes away the clouds leading to rise in the ambient temperature levels.
On Sunday, strong north-westerly to westerly winds were prevailing over parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains.
The strong winds are likely to prevail over the next 2-3 days as well, the IMD forecast said.
RAINS FORECAST
Similarly, the prevailing western disturbance is likely to continue to affect the western Himalayan region on Monday too.
Satellite imagery showed low to medium clouds over western Himalayan region and the north-eastern States.
Isolated rain or snow has been forecast for Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the next 24 hours.
Scattered rain or thundershowers are likely over parts of the north-eastern States during the next two days.
minimum temperatures
While a fall in minimum temperatures is seen over north-west and adjoining central and east India during the next three days, a rise in maximum temperatures is forecast over north-west and adjoining central and east India.
Meanwhile, international models indicated a trend in which east and peninsular India would witness sustained heating in the medium term.
This is forecast to start propagating to the west and north-west in phases.
The International Research Institute (IRI) at Columbia University and the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are in agreement with this outlook.
‘OPEN HEARTH'
Seasonal forecast by the IRI for the summer months seems to pack a pleasant surprise for east India in as much as it sees only low probability of a deadly heat wave stalking the traditional backyard encompassing Orissa, coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Vidarbha.
‘Open hearth' conditions might shift elsewhere, with the highest probability for significant above-normal heating being indicated for coastal and southern tip of Tamil Nadu, the west coast and south and south-west Gujarat during April, May, June.
The heating process would start lifting gradually in the run-up to the onset of the south-west monsoon although extreme south peninsula and Gujarat might still witness flare-ups on the home stretch.
As for monsoon rains, the IRI maintained the outlook for maximum probability for normal rainfall going into June-July-August, though the onset phase in April-May-June tends to show some deficiency for eastern parts of the country – especially, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal.
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Sunday, March 07, 2010
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