IMD is predicting that monsoon for mainland will arrive on 26-May-09.
We have predicted the date as 20/21-may-09. Here's a GFS that still supports our prediction.
It's another 4 days for that!... we'll keep it updated.
Meanwhile the Andaman wing of monsoon is just 24 hrs away.
Take a look at the latest water vapor shot, shows a lot of activity over the 5th parallel South of Bay.
Rainfall occurred at many places over Tamilnadu and at a few places over South interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Telangana, Rayalaseema, Kerala and North interior Karnataka. Mainly dry weather prevailed over Coastal Andhrapradesh and dry weather prevailed over Lakshadweep and Coastal Karnataka.
The following stations recorded heavy rainfall in Centimeters.
Tirupattur 9, Gowribidanur (Kolar dt) and Dharapuram (Erode dt) 8 each and Erode and Chintamani (Kolar dt) 7 each.
The other chief amounts of rainfall in Centimeters are:
Yercaud, Bhavani (Erode dt) and Kanjirapally (Kottayam dt) 6 each, Kumarapalayam (Namakkal dt, Kulithalai and Mayanur (both Karur dt), Sathur (Virudhunagar dt), Kollegal (Chamrajnagar dt) 5 each, Cholavaram (Thiruvallur dt), Virudhachalam (Cuddalore dt), Nagapattinam, Thali (Krishnagiri dt), Perundurai (Erode dt), Chittampatti (Madurai dt) and Bijapur 4 each, Chennai Airport, Korattur (Thiruvallur dt), Karaikal, Sirkali (Nagapattinam dt), Sendamangalam and Rasipuram (both Namakkal dt), Kangeyam (Erode dt),Bangarpet (Kolar dt),Mudhol (Bagalkote dt) and Huliyurdurga (Tumkur dt) 3 each, Grand Anaicut (Thanjavur dt), Anchetty, Denkanikottai and Uthangarai (all Krishnagiri dt), Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri, Mangalapuram, Paramathi Velur and Tiruchengode (all Namakkal dt), Namakkal, Annur (Coimbatore dt), Aravakurichi and Panchapatti (both Karur dt), Karur, Karur Paramathi and Melur (Madurai dt), Kallakurichi (Villupuram dt), Perambalur and Palani (Dindigul dt), Hiriyur (Chitradurga dt) and Channapatna (Bangalore Rural dt) 2 each and Chennai, Kattumanarkoil (Cuddalore dt), Madukkur and Pattukottai (both Thanjavur dt), Kollidam (Nagapattinam dt), Pamban, Vellore, Vaniyambadi (Vellore dt), Barur and Hosur (both Krishnagiri dt), Bhavanisagar and Gobichettipalayam (both Erode dt), Ketti and Kundha Bridge (both Nilgiris dt), Uthagamandalam, Kadavur (Karur dt), Tiruchirapalli Airport, Madurai, Madurai Airport, Sholavandhan and Vadipatti (both Madurai dt), Sivaganga and Natham (Dindigul dt),Kollengode (Palakkad dt), Enamackal (Thrissur dt), Arogyavaram, Khammam, Yelburga (Koppal dt), Holenarasipura (Hassan dt), Srirangapatna and Basaralu (Both Mandya dt), Nelamangala (Bangalore Rural dt) 1 each.
On Friday, the maximum temperature fell appreciably to markedly at a few places over North Coastal Andhrapradesh, fell appreciably at one or two places over Rayalaseema, Interior Karnataka, North Tamilnadu, fell at one or two places over rest North Tamilnadu, and changed little elsewhere over the region.
They were appreciably above normal at many places over Tamilnadu, at one or two places over Coastal and North interior Karnataka, above normal at one or two places over rest Tamilnadu, Telangana, South interior Karnataka, Kerala, appreciably below normal at one or two places over South Coastal Andhrapradesh South interior Karnataka and were generally normal over rest of the region.
Rentachintala, Hanamakonda and Adilabad recorded the highest maximum temperature of 45 degree Celsius in the region.
US Navy has started tracking the system which lies over south-south Bay.
South-east of Srilanka.
Take a look at the latest sat pic...
This potential circulation system has been marked as "95B" and this is a perfect Monsoon puller for Andaman and Southern mainland.
Conditions are becoming favourable for advance of southwest monsoon into south Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal during the next two to three days.
Rain-bearing southwesterly winds are forecast to head increasingly into the region powered by a compliment of relatively stronger southerlies from the southern hemisphere.
ONSET LIKELY
This is expected to precipitate the onset in the Andamans where prevailing southwesterly winds were weak on Friday. On the other side of the peninsula, India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects an increase in rainfall over peninsular India from Monday.
According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, weather conditions would take a decisive turn after May 20 when wind speeds and moisture carry are forecast to scale up dramatically.
'LOW' LIKELY
This phase could also throw up the expected low-pressure area in the southeast Arabian Sea and the adjoining equatorial Indian Ocean-southwest Bay of Bengal. The Head Bay may also be readying to host a separate circulation.
Three-hour forecasts being made available by an international model suggests that the flows would become southwesterly over Sri Lanka by Monday and the monsoon get established over the island nation.
But Thiruvananthapuram in Kerala, the monsoon gateway for India, would still feature predominantly west-northwesterlies around the same time. A series of thundershowers is forecast to unravel over the region as a prelude to monsoon onset.
THUNDERSHOWERS
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has said that the week ending May 22 would see Kerala awash with rain or thundershowers, which may spill into neighbouring Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.
The rains would have simultaneously become well established over southwest and central Bay of Bengal, east and northeast India where a westerly trough is shown to combine with the monsoon current to trigger widespread rainfall through the following week (May 23 to 31).
HEAT LOW
On Friday, the 'heat low' over west Rajasthan and adjoining east Pakistan held relatively strong aided by prevailing heat wave conditions. The 'heat low' must sustain to be able to provide the ideal pressure differential for monsoon to drive up from the relative 'high' over the south peninsula.
Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of the possibility of thunder squall and hail flaring up over the seasonally 'vulnerable' West Bengal, Sikkim, the Northeastern states, Jharkhand, Orissa and coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next two days.
TROUGH WEAKENS
In a major development, the weather-maker trough/wind discontinuity from Orissa to south Tamil Nadu has become less marked on Friday. A counterpart trough in westerlies from Assam and Meghalaya to northeast Bay of Bengal too has become less marked.
This is a major enabling condition for the southwest monsoon to set in over the Bay of Bengal. The unsettled weather triggered by the Nor'westers (winds associated with a prevailing western disturbance) has to shut out for the monsoon to set in.
Hailstorms were big news this week. Fierce thunderstorms unleashed barrages of giant hailstones across northern India and killed 27 people. The storms were stoked by temperatures reaching up to 49C (121F) that clashed with colder air higher up. Hailstorms often strike before the arrival of India's monsoon. On April 30, 1888, the deadliest hailstorm on record killed 246 people in Moradabad, east of Delhi, with hailstones reported as large as cricket balls
INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
Forecast for the 2009 Monsoon Onset over Kerala
1. Background
Since 2005, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing operational forecasts for the monsoon onset over Kerala using statistical techniques. During all the four years (2005 to 2008), the operational forecasts were correct. In 2008, IMD predicted 29th May as the date of monsoon onset over Kerala and the actual monsoon onset took place on 31st May just one day prior to the normal date of monsoon onset, i.e., 1st June. IMD has now prepared the forecast for the 2009 monsoon onset over Kerala.
2. Advance of monsoon over Andaman Sea
The normal date of advance of monsoon over Andaman Sea is 20th May. It is expected that within 2-3 days, monsoon flow will start appearing over Andaman Sea and monsoon is likely to cover the Andaman Sea close to its normal date. Past data suggest absence of any one to one association between the date of monsoon advance over Andaman Sea and the date of monsoon onset over Kerala.
3. Forecast for the 2009 Monsoon Onset over Kerala
For predicting the 2009 monsoon onset over Kerala, IMD used an indigenously developed statistical model, based on the following six predictors:
i) Minimum Temperature over North-west India ii) Pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula, iii) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over south China Sea (iv) Lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian ocean, (v) upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean and (vi) Outgoing Long wave (OLR) over south-west Pacific region.
The statistical forecast model has a model error of ± 4 days. The mean monsoon onset date over Kerala is 1 June.
The onset forecast model suggests that the monsoon onset over Kerala in 2009 is likely to be on 26th May with a model error of ± 4 days.
original from: http://imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/pressrelease.htm
Most parts of northern India on Thursday experienced high temperature with Churu and Kota in Rajasthan recording 46.5°C each as death toll in Orissa rose to 130 with two more people succumbing to blistering heat wave.
Casualties due to suspected sun-stroke were reported from Jagatsinghpur and Keonghar in Orissa where Titlagarh sizzled at 44°C though some places in the state were lashed by rains.
Normal life and public transport were badly affected in Rajasthan as scorching heat continued to sweep the State with mercury soaring at almost all places.
Churu and Kota remained the hottest with 46.5°C each followed by Bikaner which recorded a maximum of 46.4°C.
Heat wave conditions intensified in some parts of Punjab and Haryana with Hisar touching 44.4°C, which was hottest place in the region.
Chandigarh recorded a two degrees below normal temperature at 35.8°C while Amritsar in Punjab experienced a hot day at 40.2°C.
Mercury rose marginally in Himachal Pradesh in the absence of rain and snowfall. Occasional cool breeze, however, kept weather in capital Shimla relatively pleasant that registered 17°C.
India's monsoon could arrive a few days earlier than usual, sped up by a low pressure area around Lakshadweep from mid-May, a weather official said on Wednesday.
"We are expecting some low pressure area around Lakshadweep from 18th May...If the low pressure area becomes a cyclone, the monsoon will arrive faster," a director-level official of the Indian Meteorological Department told Reuters.
The monsoon normally arrives around June 1 in Kerala. Lakshadweep is an adjoining island and a part of Indian territory.
Earlier, the government predicted India's annual monsoon at 96 percent of the long-term average, which would make it the worst season in five years, although the near normal forecast raised hope for economic support and bumper crops.
The weather office regards rainfall to be nearly normal if it ranges from 96 percent to 104 percent of the long-term average.
A weather official based in Pune in western India echoed similar hopes on the back of a low pressure formation.
"The monsoon may come a few days earlier...formation of low pressure area may influence the monsoon flow," D.Sivananda Pai, director of government-run National Climate Center at Pune, said on Wednesday.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) at a press conference on Tuesday stated that efforts were on to get the Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) operational by mid week of July, for better prediction of rains in the city. However, the DWR is not the sole tool that IMD depends on to predict monsoon - it is just one of the several paraphernalia used to collect information on cloud formation, advancement and wind direction - the Met Department clarified.
Updating the status of the installation, Dr R V Sharma, deputy director general of IMD, Mumbai, said, "The DWR equipment has arrived at the Mumbai port on April 27 and IMD office on May 7. Now, we are conducting terrace modification work at Archana building in Navy Colony so that the antenna could be installed before the monsoon."
He said the Navy had assured to complete the work by May 31. Depending on the progress, plans are on to hand over the equipment to the suppliers, Indian Firm of Radar, on May 20.
He pointed out that there could be several road blocks and that heavy rains and strong winds may create difficulties during installation.
The Met department of Mumbai was so far using a conventional radar which would relay the cloud movement, cloud formation and moisture precipitation every half-an-hour. DWR is a more advanced equipment which would relay the same factors every 15 minutes.
